Ripple Effect

Earth on pace for 2nd warmest year on record in 2017, despite Trump's efforts to dismantle climate science

As the Trump administration continues its assault on climate science, the world is headed for another one of its warmest years on record.

The 2017 year-to-date temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was 1.64 degrees Fahrenheit above the 20th century average, the second highest January-to-June value since records starting being kept in 1880. That six-month average comes in second only to 2016's, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration findings issued this morning.

In addition, the globally average temperature over land and ocean surfaces for the month of June this year was the world's third highest on record, NOAA said.

The monthly summary was developed by scientists at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information.

For 390 consecutive months now, global temperatures have been at least nominally above the 20th century average, NOAA said.

This June also marked the 41st consecutive June in which temperatures have been warmer than average, the agency said.

Based on data from NOAA and NASA, the National Snow and Ice Data Center also has determined that Antarctic sea ice this June was at its second smallest for that month since record-keeping began in that category in 1979. The smallest was in 2002.

As for the Arctic, sea ice there was the sixth smallest for the month of June since record-keeping began in 1979. It was about 7.5 percent below the 1981-2010 average, NOAA said.

For more information, go here and here. NOAA's monthly summary can be viewed here.

 

 

 

 

 

Postal Service issues Thoreau stamp to help us find Heaven on Earth

Here's a postage stamp I'm going to stock up on: The one honoring writer-philosopher-naturalist Henry David Thoreau.

Kudos to the Postal Service for offering it.

The following Thoreau quote has been a permanent fixture on Ripple Effect since this blog first went live several years ago: "Heaven is under our feet as well as over our heads."

To me, that one quote sums up why I do what I do and why readers in the Great Lakes region - or any part of the world, for that matter - should care about the environment.

It's because of our Sense of Home.

The new Henry David Thoreau stamp was released today at Walden Pond in Concord, Mass. Thoreau's 200th birthday is July 12. Photo credit: U.S. Postal Service.

As I explain in my own words right that Thoreau quote - in the right-hand column of my blog's home page - every pollution battle "ultimately comes down to mankind's desire to better itself while protecting its sense of home."

I happen to focus on Great Lakes energy-environmental issues, which are far removed in distance from Thoreau's Walden Pond in Concord, Mass., but not in philosophy.

Just about all bodies of water, all forests, all mountains and other great ecosystems have a ripple effect on our public health, our natural resources, our economy, our psychological well-being, and our homespun pride.

I'd argue that if we thought more of the planet itself as our home - which it is - we'd take better care of it.

It's a simple concept. And, yes, there's obviously a need for industry, development and all of the modern conveniences mankind can enjoy.

But instead of getting worked up by confusing buzzwords like sustainability or becoming so polarized over political views, we'd all be better off if we simply thought of the Earth as our backyard or home that deserves a certain amount of respect.

Another thing I've always liked about Thoreau is how his writings on civil disobedience became a backbone for non-violent movements led decades later by Mahatma Gandhi and Martin Luther King, Jr.

We're seeing more of that today in protests on anything from the environment to women's rights to President Trump's proposed immigration ban.

Here are the details for the Thoreau stamp:

The Postal Service released it today at Walden Pond.

Thoreau's 200^th birthday is July 12.

Like most others issued these days, it's a Forever stamp.

Thoreau, who lived from 1817 to 1862, spent two years - 1845 to 1847 - at Walden Pond, living modestly in a one-room house at the edge of his hometown on Concord and being inspired by his frequent nature walks around Walden Pond. His experience there served as the inspiration for his iconic 1854 book, Walden.

“Thoreau was one of the great thinkers in this country’s history on a wide variety of subjects, and the expression on his face in the stamp image captures his introspective and inquisitive nature,” U.S. Postal Service General Counsel and Executive Vice President Thomas J. Marshall said. “Thoreau encouraged everyone to lead more thoughtful and considered lives. Given the pace of today’s world, the many demands on our time, and sometimes conflicting priorities, I am sure we could all benefit from his advice.”

Environmentalist-actor Ed Begley, Jr., a Walden Woods Project board member, said the organization is honored to have Thoreau recognized with a stamp. Begley said he views Walden Pond as "the birthplace of the American conservation movement.”

I was fortunate enough to experience a hike around Walden Pond during the final day of the 1995 Society of Environmental Journalists national conference.

I met and strolled alongside someone who has become a lifelong friend and important mentor, Jim Detjen, one of SEJ's founders and a former Philadelphia Inquirer science editor who was in the early stages then of creating Michigan State University's famed Knight Center for Environmental Journalism.

For more about Thoreau and his commemorative stamp, including instructions on how to order a first-day-of-issue postmark, see this Postal Service news release.

To follow the Twitter and Instagram discussions, go to #ThoreauStamps.

 

 

 

 

 

Waukesha Mayor Shawn Reilly vows to create 'world-class water program' from Great Lakes diversion

It's official: Waukesha will get Great Lakes water pumped to it even though it lies just outside the natural Great Lakes watershed, a decision that could potentially open the door for more near-basin diversions.

The eight-state council in charge of the landmark 2008 agreement known as the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence River Basin Water Resources Compact unanimously upheld its 2016 decision to grant an exemption on Thursday, once again stating that Waukesha has made its case to receive 8.2 million gallons a day of treated Lake Michigan water from the nearby community of Oak Creek, Wis.

Waukesha, which lies 20 miles west of Milwaukee and just beyond the Great Lakes watershed boundary, has naturally occurring radium in its groundwater, as well as salts and minerals and a potentially toxic stew of arsenic, fly ash, chloride, and other pollutants.

It also has had a gradual decline in its aquifer. The situation's manageable in the short-term, but the city is under orders from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to resolve uncertainty over its future water supply.

Waukesha Mayor Shawn N. Reilly making a presentation earlier this year. THE BLADE/TOM HENRY

The compact is designed to prevent large-scale diversions and bulk exports of Great Lakes water to the Southwest or even more faraway places in the world, such as China.

In some very selective cases, though, it allows communities in counties that straddle the Great Lakes basin to be exempt - if and only if they have extenuating circumstances.

The compact council's latest action was really more of a housekeeping matter, because the council last month rejected a request for a hearing.

That challenge was brought by the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Cities Initiative, which represents 128 cities around the region.

The Chicago-based group was acting on behalf of Racine, Wis., a city 30 miles south of Milwaukee that's not too amused by the situation because it will be sent Waukesha's sewage effluent via the Root River. Racine also has one of North America's best freshwater beaches.

Waukesha promises that whatever it sends downstream will be of a better quality than what's already in the river.

In his statement to the media Thursday, Waukesha Mayor Shawn N. Reilly said he hopes the Cities Initiative "will now join us in creating a world-class water program that will not only serve our community well into the next century but also be the standard for sustainability and protecting our Great Lakes and the Root River.”

The compact council said in its ruling that day the agreement's "high barrier to diversions cannot be transformed into an absolute prohibition."

The eight Great Lakes states collectively agreed to hold tighter to regional water supplies in response a highly controversial 1998 case in which a Canadian firm called the Nova Group secured a permit to ship Lake Superior water to Asia.

The Nova Group eventually relinquished the permit after an international uproar ensued. But that case inspired the states to pass the regional water-withdrawal compact, which was signed into law by then-President George W. Bush in 2008.

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. Sen. Rob Portman gets face-to-face with Asian carp at the University of Toledo's Lake Erie Center

U.S. Sen. Rob Portman (R., Ohio), who co-chairs the Senate Great Lakes Task Force with U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D., Mich.), was greeted by three unexpected visitors during his hour-long stop at the University of Toledo's Lake Erie Center earlier this week: Asian carp.

Waiting for him in a back laboratory were the frozen carcasses of three of the four types - grass carp, silver carp and the biggest fella of them all, bighead carp.

The only type of Asian carp missing from that group was black carp, which are probably the least understood.

Black carp and grass carp have been are gaining attention lately, though, because of their presence in the Illinois and Sandusky rivers. The Sandusky flows into western Lake Erie.

Grass carp were confirmed in the Sandusky in late 2012, when six of that species were caught. Scientists from the Ohio Department of Natural Resources and other agencies aren't sure how they got there. They are believed to be the first Asian carp species to be spawned in the Great Lakes or its tributaries.

UT algae researcher Tom Bridgeman, left, holding the frozen carcass of a bighead Asian carp for U.S. Sen. Rob Portman (R., Ohio). THE BLADE/TOM HENRY 

The two most dreaded species are the silver Asian carp and the bighead Asian carp.

The silver carp are the ones so sensitive to the vibrations of boat motors they flop high out of water and literally become fleshy projectiles capable of injuring fishermen.

The bigheads, which can grow to be 100 pounds, are aquatic vacuum cleaners, such proficient eaters they destroy most of the food for native fish wherever they go.

Tom Bridgeman, a UT environmental sciences associate professor who specializes in western Lake Erie algae research, held up the bighead carp so Portman could get face-to-face with it.

"I'm not touching that thing," Portman said with a chuckle.

Portman said he and other senators are working with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers on an eventual solution to the most probably entry point for the silvers and bigheads, the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal, which dumps into Lake Michigan near Chicago.

Portman outside UT's Lake Erie Center. THE BLADE/TOM HENRY

The canal is part of a man-made series of waterways that has artificially linked the Great Lakes and Mississippi River watersheds together for decades. Scientists have said a complete separation is the best way to avoid an invasion, but the government has balked at the $18.4 billion price tag. At risk is a Great Lakes fishery worth $7 billion a year.  

Every study shows "more and more evidence" of the silver and bighead Asian carp getting closer, Portman said.

Christine Mayer, a UT ecology professor who specializes in invasive species, said the specimens shown at the lab were pulled from the Illinois River on April 13. They were gutted and frozen so they could be shipped to the lab in time for Portman's visit, she said.

Portman spent time talking with her and Bridgeman about Lake Erie issues, and hearing about some other issues from Oregon City Administrator Mike Beazley.

UT's Christine Mayer, U.S. Sen. Rob Portman (R., Ohio) and UT's Tom Bridgeman discuss Great Lakes issues at UT's Lake Erie Center. THE BLADE/TOM HENRY

 

Oregon City Administrator Mike Beazley, left, and U.S. Sen. Rob Portman (R., Ohio). THE BLADE/TOM HENRY

 

 

What's next for the Great Lakes region now that Waukesha has won?

The first real test case for the landmark water-withdrawal agreement known as the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence River Basin Water Resources Compact, or simply the Great Lakes compact, is now one for the books.

The city of Waukesha, Wis. has prevailed in its defense of a 2016 permit it received to divert Lake Michigan water to its community 20 miles west of Milwaukee.

On Thursday, Waukesha got the knockout decision it was seeking when representatives of the eight Great Lakes states on the regional compact council unanimously rejected an appeal from the Chicago-based Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Cities Initiative, which has been working with the nearby city of Racine, Wis., 30 miles south of Milwaukee, to oppose Waukesha's plan.

“Today was a tremendous day for the citizens of Waukesha and the future of our city,” Waukesha Mayor Shawn N. Reilly said in response to the decision. "The decision was based on facts, science and the Great Lakes Compact Council’s exacting standards for borrowing and returning Great Lakes water. The Compact Council made the right call last year, and unanimously affirmed that today. We appreciate their dedication in examining the facts of our application and how our circumstances are unique.

Waukesha Mayor Shawn N. Reilly making a presentation earlier this year. THE BLADE/TOM HENRY

Waukesha - the hometown of rock 'n' roll guitar pioneer Les Paul - has become the battleground for one of North America's fiercest water wars.

Seen outside Wisconsin as a test of the regional compact's strength, Waukesha's ability to start diverting 8.2 million gallons a day of treated Lake Michigan water to that city is seen inside Wisconsin as more of a battle over sewage and perceived risks of exposure to it.

Racine doesn't want Waukesha's sewage coming into its community, no matter what assurances are made.

Waukesha has naturally occurring radium in its groundwater. It is under orders from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to resolve uncertainty over its future water supply.

Besides radium, there are too many salts and minerals and a potentially toxic stew of arsenic, fly ash, chloride, and other pollutants in the city's groundwater.

The situation is apparently manageable in the short term.

But it is expected to worsen in the coming years because of a shale barrier that's 150 feet deep and - in the eyes of Waukesha officials - preventing its aquifer from recharging, although some critics dispute that claim.

So, after years of engineering studies and political debate, Waukesha landed a contract to start buying from nearby Oak Creek, Wis., within a few years. 

“All I know is my people are afraid,” Racine Mayor John Dickert told a group of journalists Jan. 6. THE BLADE/TOM HENRY

Waukesha originally sought 10.1 million gallons a day from Oak Creek. The approved flow 8.2 million gallons a day is about 20 percent less.

But that hasn't alleviated Racine's concerns about the quality of 8.2 million gallons a day of treated wastewater, or effluent, Waukesha plans to put into the Root River to make up for what is taken from the lake on its behalf.

Waukesha maintains the fears expressed by Racine's outgoing mayor, John Dickert, are unfounded - that it will put water of a better quality into the Root.

Much of Racine's economy is built around its Lake Michigan beach tourism; hence, Mr. Dickert's anxiety.

Racine's North Beach is considered one of North America's best freshwater beaches.

“All I know is my people are afraid,” Mayor Dickert told a group of journalists Jan. 6. “This beach is our No. 1 tourist attraction.”

Mr. Reilly said he hopes the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Cities Initiative - which represents 128 cities around the region - will now work with Racine to "join us in creating a world-class water program that will not only serve our community well into the next century but also be the standard for sustainability and protecting our Great Lakes while improving the quality of the Root River.”

Mr. Dickert announced March 27 he is stepping down as mayor this summer to replace Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Cities Initiative David Ullrich, a former U.S. EPA Midwest regional chief who has been the group's executive director since its inception.

The compact was written to keep large-scale diversions from happening outside of the Great Lakes basin.

There has been talk for years of someday piping Great Lakes water to the arid Southwest. In 1998, a Canadian firm called the Nova Group secured a permit to ship Lake Superior water to Asia, then agreed to relinquish after an international uproar ensued. That case led to the compact, which was adopted by the states, ratified by Congress, and signed into law by then-President George W. Bush in 2008.

 

The Root River, as it appeared in January. THE BLADE/TOM HENRY

 

 

David Ullrich, Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Cities Initiative executive director, has announced he is stepping down later this year. He is being replaced by Racine Mayor John Dickert. THE BLADE/TOM HENRY

 

Gasoline prices likely to be 23 cents a gallon more expensive this summer

Expect to pay about 23 cents more per gallon of gasoline this summer than last summer, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration projections released today.

In its Short-Term Energy and Summer Fuels Outlook, the EIA is predicting average gas prices of $2.46 a gallon this April through September, compared to the 2016 average of $2.23 a gallon during those same months.

"The higher forecast gasoline price is primarily the result of higher forecast crude oil prices," the EIA said, although adding that's still nearly 70 cents less per gallon than the previous five-year average.

The average price for all of 2017 is expected to be $2.39 a gallon for regular gasoline, which - if it happens - means the average U.S. household will spent about $200 more on motor fuel this year than in 2016.

Chances are that variance will result in little or no change in driving habits, so don't expect an appreciable change in air quality here in the Great Lakes region or other parts of the country.

 

Go here for a few more cool nuggets, such as why gasoline prices typically increase each spring.

Demand is much greater, with the threat of snow dissipating and people more than eager to shed their cabin fever, of course.

But prices also rise because summer-grade gasoline is more expensive to produce.

In general, the most expensive gas prices will continue to be on the West Coast and most affordable along the Gulf Coast, with prices in the Great Lakes region and other parts of the country in-between.

They tend to be higher on the West Coast because California requires a blend of gasoline that is relatively costly to produce. Some states out there also have relatively high state gasoline tax rates.

Gasoline prices in Gulf Coast states are often among the lowest, because of relatively low state tax rates and abundant gasoline supplies there.

The Gulf Coast is home to about half of U.S. petroleum refining capacity.

 

 

 

 

Our changing climate: NOAA reports 2017 is off and running as America's second-warmest year on record

The first quarter of 2017 has been the second warmest on record for the United States, with this March being the nation's ninth warmest on record, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported this morning.

The Great Lakes states were among more than 40 states that were solidly above average from January through March. 

The news comes as the Trump administration is trying to get Congress to gut many environmental programs, from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Great Lakes Restoration Initiative to NOAA's College Sea Grant program - an important source for Ohio Sea Grant and Ohio State University's Stone Laboratory out on Lake Erie - as well as climate change research in general.

The changing climate continues to take its toll on the U.S. economy, too: NOAA reports there were five weather and climate disaster events - mostly flooding, freezing and severe storms - that caused $1 billion or more in the first three months of 2017 - the most in the 1980-present timeframe. Those disasters were blamed for 37 deaths.

During March, according to NOAA, the average contiguous U.S. temperature was 46.2 degrees, which was 4.7 degrees above the 20th century average.

Record and near-record warmth spanned the West and Great Plains, with below-average temperatures in the Northeast.

The year-to-date contiguous U.S. average temperature in the first three months of 2017 was 40 degree, 5.1 degrees above average, making it the second warmest January-to-March on record. The record for those first three months of a year is 41.4 degrees, set in 2012.

Overall precipitation was average, but varied by region. The Northwest was unusually wet, while the Southeast was unusually dry, NOAA said.

More than 2 million acres burned during March, a new record for that month, fostered by warm and windy conditions across the South.

See this monthly NOAA summary for more information.

 

 

Lesser-known story about historic Great Lakes fight over water: Racine fears Waukesha's sewage will bring 'danger'

WAUKESHA, Wis. - While visiting the lovely state of Wisconsin earlier this month, I learned the battle over Waukesha's future water supply isn't just about the 8.2 million gallons a day of treated Lake Michigan water that Waukesha wants to start buying from nearby Oak Creek, Wis., within a few years.

To the city of Racine, it's also about the quality of 8.2 million gallons a day of treated wastewater, or effluent, Waukesha plans to put into the Root River to make up for what is taken from the lake on its behalf.

For a detailed overview, see this article I had in Monday's paper that explains why Waukesha - the hometown of rock 'n' roll guitar pioneer Les Paul - has become the battleground for one of North America's fiercest water wars.

"The danger's coming down the Root River." - Racine Mayor John Dickert. THE BLADE/TOM HENRY

What most people outside of Wisconsin apparently don't know is that this landmark case is as much a battle about sewage and perceived risks from it as anything.

Racine doesn't want Waukesha's sewage coming into its community, no matter what assurances are made.

In a nutshell, the situation is this: Waukesha has naturally occurring radium in its groundwater. It is under orders from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to resolve uncertainty over its future water supply.

Besides radium, there are too many salts and minerals and a potentially toxic stew of arsenic, fly ash, chloride, and other pollutants in the city's groundwater.

The situation is apparently manageable in the short term.

But it is expected to worsen in the coming years because of a shale barrier that's 150 feet deep and - in the eyes of Waukesha officials - preventing its aquifer from recharging, although some critics dispute that claim.

The Root River. THE BLADE/TOM HENRY

Regardless, Waukesha predictably became the first city to test the historic water-withdrawal agreement known as the landmark Great Lakes-St. Lawrence River Basin Water Resources Compact, securing a highly controversial permit last June to withdraw 8.2 million gallons a day and return the same amount.

That permit was approved by the eight Great Lakes governors, but is now being challenged by the Chicago-based Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Cities Initiative, which represents 127 U.S. and Canadian cities.

Anyone from neighborhood activists to well-funded, highly organized environmental groups have challenged the permit on the grounds it sets a bad precedent and could lead to more siphoning off the lakes, which the compact was written to prevent. The compact allows exemptions for distressed, near-basin communities such as Waukesha, though.

Such opponents are unconvinced by Waukesha's assertion that, in the context of the six quadrillion gallons in the Great Lakes at any given time, removing 8.2 million gallons a day is roughly the equivalent of taking a teaspoon of water out of an Olympic-sized swimming pool. And, as Waukesha notes, it will be returning the same volume in the form of effluent.

Waukesha vows not to discharge effluent with an algae-growing phosphorus level greater than 0.075 parts per million into the Root.

The Root’s phosphorus concentration is typically more than twice that, from .104 ppm in the spring to .554 ppm in the summer, according to figures provided by John Skalbeck, a University of Wisconsin-Parkside geosciences professor.

“It will improve the Root River water quality,” Skalbeck said.

Jeff Harenda, Waukesha Clean Water Plant (sewage treatment plant) superintendent said Racine should not worry. THE BLADE/TOM HENRY

But what's received a lot less attention outside of Wisconsin has been Racine's fear of what could happen to its community and its economy, especially if the plan backfires and ruins its nationally known beach.

“The danger’s coming down the Root River,” Racine Mayor John Dickert told a roomful of journalists during a Jan. 6 discussion organized by the Institutes for Journalism & Natural Resources.

Racine’s North Beach has been rated by national publications as one of America’s best freshwater beaches. Any threat to it is a threat to Racine’s economy, the mayor said.

He and David Ullrich, Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Cities Initiative executive director, said phosphorus numbers don’t tell the whole story.

They fear Waukesha’s plan is too much of gamble, pointing out how sewage treatment plants aren’t designed to remove viruses, plastic microbeads, or pharmaceuticals.

Waukesha is taking additional steps toward eliminating pathogens through aeration and ultraviolet technology, according to Jeff Harenda, the city’s sewage treatment plant superintendent, who vows the effluent going into the Root River will improve that stream.

David Ullrich of Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Cities Initiative: His group is challenging Waukesha's permit. THE BLADE/TOM HENRY

“We are very proud of our plant. We are very proud of the quality of water we put out from our plant,” Dan Duchniak, Waukesha Water Utility general manager, said.

The healthcare industry is in the process of phasing out microbeads they have used in toothpaste, soaps, and other healthcare products. Legislation approved by Congress and signed into law by President Obama a year ago this month requires products to be made without them as of this July 1, and for sales to cease by July 1, 2018.

But pharmaceuticals flushed down toilets and sinks - and excreted by humans - aren’t removed by sewage treatment plants, either.

“All I know is my people are afraid,” Mayor Dickert said. “This beach is our No. 1 tourist attraction.”

Ullrich said his coalition’s challenge “isn’t about undermining the compact.”

“It’s about strengthening the compact,” Ullrich said. “We believe a mistake was made by approving the diversion. We’ve got nothing against Waukesha. It really is all about the Great Lakes. It really is all about the compact.”

The Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, which reviewed Waukesha’s application for five years before recommending the compact council approve it, acknowledged the flow will likely result in some sort of change - but not necessarily one that fouls the river.

Some officials believe additional water will help the fishery, not hurt it. The Root River at times has water levels too low for salmon and trout.

Waukesha Mayor Shawn Reilly. THE BLADE/TOM HENRY

Waukesha’s a city of 71,000 people with unique charm and history.

Its downtown features an eclectic mix of newer coffee shops and restaurants run by entrepreneurs who have preserved much of the town’s historic charm and fabric.

Club 400, a tavern on the National Register of Historic Places, featured regular shows in the 1930s by the legendary Les Paul, a musician best known for inventing one of rock’s most popular guitars.

Originally opened in 1894 as a hotel, Club 400 - named after a train that made regular stops at a depot across the street - got new life as a nightclub in 1948 when it was reopened by Mr. Paul’s father and brother, George and Ralph Polfuss.

One of downtown’s anchors is the Clarke Hotel, a remodeled building from the 1800s that has a warm, European atmosphere. The drink menu of the hotel’s Irish pub has a variation of Irish coffee called “The Peggy,” in honor of Waukesha Mayor Shawn Reilly’s mother, an 83-year-old dyed-in-the-wood Celt with a big smile who makes no apologies for enjoying an occasional nightcap.

In its 8,000-page application submitted in 2010, Waukesha sought 10.1 million gallons a day from Oak Creek. The approved flow 8.2 million gallons a day is about 20 percent less.

“It’s important to realize there’s this big picture lesson to be learned about water and sustainability.” - Peter Annin of Northland College. THE BLADE/TOM HENRY

The dispute comes when at least 800 million of Earth’s 7.5 billion people lack access to clean water, at least 2 million of whom die annually from unhealthy water or sewage sanitation, Peter Annin, author of The Great Lakes Water Wars and co-director of Northland College’s Mary Griggs Burke Center for Freshwater Innovation, said.

By 2025, two-thirds of the world could be mired in some sort of water shortage, he said.

“The Great Lakes and the rest of the world are entering an era of water tension,” Annin said.

He noted that the Illinois diversion at Chicago, created decades ago to move sewage effluent away from the city toward St. Louis, permanently lowers the levels of Lakes Michigan and Huron by 2.5 inches. That diversion has been set at 2.1 billion gallons a day since the 1960s by the Supreme Court.

“Water is the lifeblood of the economy and society,” Annin said.

Waukesha is the first test of the Great Lakes compact that required approval from all eight Great Lakes governors, but it is not the first community straddling the basin to get Lake Michigan water.

In 2009, former Wisconsin Gov. Jim Doyle approved an application from New Berlin, Wis., to divert 2.4 million gallons a day there.

Doyle had the power to do that alone because about a third of New Berlin is inside the basin, Annin said.

Annin’s research includes travel to the Aral Sea, considered one of the world’s greatest engineering disasters because Russia got too aggressive with multiple diversions. Only a portion of what was once one of the world’s largest lakes remains.

“It’s important to realize there’s this big picture lesson to be learned about water and sustainability,” Annin said.

Piping inside the Oak Creek water treatment plant. THE BLADE/TOM HENRY

 

Mike Sullivan, Oak Creek Water and Sewer Utility general manager. THE BLADE/TOM HENRY

The water tower at Oak Creek's water treatment plant. THE BLADE/TOM HENRY

Part of the Waukesha Clean Water Plant, aka sewage treatment plant. THE BLADE/TOM HENRY

 

 

 

 

 

Gasoline prices expected to nudge upward for at least the next two years, according to latest government forecast. Natural gas and renewables also expected to gain, while coal and nuclear continue to slide

In its latest short-term energy outlook, released this morning, the U.S. Department of Energy predicts the nation's average gasoline price will rise to $2.31 a gallon during the first quarter of 2017, up from $2.25 a gallon in December, 2016.

Average prices for 2017 are expected to be $2.38 a gallon in 2017 and $2.41 a gallon in 2018.

Bottom line: Remain prepared for fluctuations, as always.

But prices, while somewhat stable, should gradually ascend upward again as the global market prices for crude oil rise and outpace growth in U.S. crude oil production, which is expected to rise to as much as 9.3 million barrels a day in 2018, up from an anticipated 9.0 million barrels a day in 2017 and an estimated 8.9 million barrels a day in 2016.

The newest outlook is the first to include 2018 forecasts, the Energy Department said.

Last year also was the first time that a fuel other than coal held the greatest market share for electricity generation, according to EIA figures.

The 2016 market share for natural gas was 34 percent, besting coal's declining market share of 30 percent.

Until the modern fracking era allowed drillers access to vast amounts of previously inaccessible natural gas, coal had been king for decades. For many years, coal generated half or more of the nation's electricity.

This year, natural gas and coal are expected to be in a neck-and-neck race for the No. 1 spot - each commanding about 32 percent of the nation's electricity market - before natural gas pulls ahead again in 2018 with 33 percent of the market share compare to coal's 32, according to the EIA estimates.

The much-beleaguered nuclear industry's decline isn't expected to be as steep or rapid as some people believe, though.

The industry's latest hit came Monday, when the utility operating the massive Indian Point nuclear plant outside New York City announced plans to prematurely close the station's two reactors because of its ability to compete against falling natural gas prices.

That is the latest of several premature closings announced.

But, as it stands now, Indian Point reactors will stay online until 2020 and 2021, respectively.

Nuclear power's market share is expected to be 19 percent in 2018, down from the 20 percent it was in 2016 and has been for many years.

The Indian Point nuclear plant outside New York City is to close early because of competition from natural gas. Photo credit: Associated Press.

Growth in non-hydro renewable energy sources is expected to continue, reaching 9 percent in 2018 up from 8 percent in 2016, the EIA said.

Hydropower's market share is expected to remain between 6 and 7 percent. 

 

 

 

 

Nuclear industry suffers another big setback, days after taking a step forward

Days after celebrating the long-delayed completion of the Tennessee Valley Authority's Watts Bar Unit 2 nuclear plant near Knoxville, the Nuclear Energy Institute was lamenting the closure of the Omaha Public Power's Fort Calhoun nuclear power plant near Omaha, Neb.

"The premature closing of Fort Calhoun illustrates the situation in which well-operating nuclear facilities are forced to shut down as a result of weak market conditions. This is especially the case with smaller, single-unit facilities in unregulated markets such as Nebraska where economies of scale make it challenging to generate electricity at a competitive price," Marvin Fertel, the NEI's president and chief executive officer, said.

Fort Calhoun operated 43 years, generating 34 percent of the power distributed by Omaha Public Power and 9 percent of Nebraska's electricity.

But like other nuclear plants - especially in states with deregulated electricity markets - it is now hard for them to compete against historically low natural gas prices from the new era of fracking, as well as the growth of renewable energy.

Fort Calhoun, which shut down on Monday, was licensed to operate until Aug. 9, 2033.

Licensed to operate until Aug. 9, 2033, the Fort Calhoun nuclear plant near Omaha, Neb. this week became the nation's latest nuclear plant to shut down because of changing economics brought on by fracking and the growth of renewable energy. Photo credit: Associated Press.

The NEI has argued its plants should get market credits for reliability and for not releasing climate-altering carbon dioxide during operations.

The nuclear industry touts itself as carbon-free, which isn't exactly true.

A lot of carbon dioxide is generated by the uranium mining needed to make nuclear fuel. But even by factoring in that and other cradle-to-grave emissions from construction, transportation, and decommissioning plants, it's hard to argue its carbon footprint is relatively low in comparison to coal-fired power plants or even those fueled by cleaner natural gas.

"The negative impacts of its untimely closing make it clear there is an urgent need to prevent this from happening to other nuclear plants at risk of premature retirement," Fertel said. "Without change, there will be more plant closings resulting in similar negative economic and environmental consequences."

Fort Calhoun's shutdown came only five days after the NEI put out a statement commemorating the long-awaited opening of Watts Bar Unit 2, a plant which took decades to build.

Watts Bar Unit 2 is America's first new plant to come online since 1996, when its companion plant, Watts Bar Unit 1, began operation.

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission issued construction permits for both way back in 1973.

Construction for both was put on hold in the mid 1980s.

Watts Bar Unit 1 was finished and went online in the late 1990s.

Work resumed on Watts Bar Unit 2 a few years ago.

The site is not without controversy: The NRC said in a news release Wednesday it has scheduled a Nov. 3 meeting with TVA officials to discuss the agency's concerns over what it has described as a "chilled work environment," one in which the utility may have "unduly influenced" some employees from raising safety concerns.

It all adds up to more trouble for the nuclear industry, despite strides it has made in some areas.

In recent months, many of the strongest statements about nuclear's future aren't just found in the hyperbole of anti-nuclear groups but in dire predictions from industry figures such as Fertel, who said at a U.S. Department of Energy conference in Washington last May there’s a “sense of urgency” to improve economics of the nation’s 99 remaining nuclear plants.

If the playing field isn’t leveled to account more for nuclear power’s attributes as a low-carbon, high-output source of electricity, the industry could have as many as 20 more plants shut down prematurely over the next decade, he said.

Advocates say that would mean tens of thousands of jobs lost while jeopardizing national security with greater dependence on more intermittent energy sources such as wind and solar power.

“We need a much, much greater sense of urgency to address the issues that we’re seeing right now,” Fertel said back then.

He said the industry was "obviously mistaken" to think the trend would stop with the shutdowns on the Kewaunee nuclear plant in Wisconsin in 2013 and Vermont Yankee in 2014.

Since then, Energy Corp. has announced it will retire its FitzPatrick and Pilgrim nuclear plants in upstate New York and Massachusetts, respectively, by the end of the decade.

Exelon recently said it cannot continue to incur losses from its twin-unit Quad Cities and single-unit Clinton plants in Illinois much longer.

“These are not isolated events. We have a systemic problem,” Fertel said. “This is a serious, systemic problem, and it requires action now.”

The NEI's Marvin Fertel said in May there is a "sense of urgency" now to save nuclear plants. Matt Bennett, senior vice president for public affairs of Third Way, a Washington think tank that claims to take moderate views on national issues, said at the same event that Americans need to acknowledge “the house is on fire.”  Photo credit: Nuclear Energy Institute.

Matt Bennett, senior vice president for public affairs of Third Way, a Washington think tank that claims to take moderate views on national issues, said at that same DOE conference last May that Americans need to acknowledge “the house is on fire.”

In this part of the country, FirstEnergy Corp. has vowed to stick by its aging Davis-Besse nuclear plant east of Toledo and its Perry plant east of Cleveland. DTE Energy likewise has no immediate plans to shut its Fermi 2 nuclear plant north of Monroe.

But Ohio and Michigan are among 13 states with deregulated electricity markets where nuclear plants have an especially hard time competing. Those with single units have even more difficulty, officials said.

A 2013 Vermont Law School report listed Davis-Besse as one of a dozen plants most likely to close early because of economics.

Wind and solar are criticized by nuclear advocates because of their start-up subsidies.

But several years ago, a conservative group, Taxpayers for Common Sense, identified $85 billion in subsidies to nuclear power since 1948, of which more than $66 billion was spent on nuclear energy research and subsidies through 1998.

While Fertel blamed “dysfunctional market conditions” for threats to thousands of jobs and steady production of electricity, U.S. Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz said there’s a lot more at stake.

Nuclear still provides almost 20 percent of the nation’s electricity. But a lot of people don’t realize it also accounts for 60 percent of the electricity today from low-carbon sources, he said.

Without as many nuclear plants operating, America will have a hard time achieving the commitment it made to other countries under last December’s United Nations climate change treaty in Paris to reduce greenhouse gases 27 percent by 2025, Mr. Moniz said at the DOE event in May.

Many of the plants will turn 60 years old around 2030 and they can’t be expected to run indefinitely, he said.

“We are supposed to be adding zero-carbon sources, not subtracting or simply replacing them to tread water,” Mr. Moniz said. “We need to prevent more closures and get on the trajectory of adding capacity.”

Ironically, a rule many utilities are fighting — the Obama Administration’s controversial Clean Power Plan to reduce greenhouse gases from coal-fired power plants — is becoming one of the potential tools for saving nuclear plants, Mr. Moniz said.

Keeping more nuclear around would help states comply with that rule, he said.

One suggestion for getting the market to better value nuclear’s attributes is changing state renewable energy mandates to “clean energy standards” that would give utilities more incentives to invest in nuclear power.

Thirty states have renewable-energy mandates. Ohio lawmakers are deciding whether to keep their two-year freeze in effect indefinitely. The law passed in Ohio several years ago required 12.5 percent of the state’s electricity come from renewables by 2025 and 12.5 percent from a combination of undefined clean coal and advanced nuclear.

Craig Glazer, vice president of PJM, the 13-state regional grid operator that includes Ohio, said market incentives are being created to reward high-performing, low-emitting energy sources — but not nuclear per se.

“If the goal is to just save nuclear, that’s another goal,” he said at the DOE event in May.

Mike Langford, Utilities Workers Union of America national president, said states with deregulated energy markets might have to be re-regulated to save nuclear plants and the thousands of workers they employ.

“This industry is too vulnerable to be left up to chance,” Mr. Langford said at the same event. “Energy is the engine of our economy, and we’re leaving it up to chance. It blows me away.”