Before the season began, I issued lines for a game of "over/under" and asked readers to participate. Here's where we stand at the midway point of the year.
Percentage of snaps taken by quarterback Terrance Owens: 65
Midseason prediction: Over. No need to go through the tediuos task of adding up the numbers. Not even close at this point.
How it can change: Injury or demotion.
What I was thinking: Figured to see Owens receive the bulks of reps in a two-quarterback system. Didn't think he'd be the permanent guy.
Rushing yards by David Fluellen: 875
Midseason prediction: Over. Fluellen has 604 yards, which equates to 1,208 over a 12-game season. Throw in a bowl game, and perhaps the MAC title game, and he should easily clear my expectation.
How it can change: Short of an injury that forces him to the sideline for several games, it won't.
What I was thinking: Figured Cassius McDowell (52 attempts to Fluellen's 112) would be getting more work. Also didn't suspect Fluellen would go off for more than 200 yards in one game, which he did at Western Michigan.
Regular season wins: 8.5
Midseason prediction: Over. A 9-3 or 10-2 regular season seem like the safest bets.
How it can change: Losses to Cincinnati, Ball State, and Northern Illinois. Not far fetched.
What I was thinking: I'm on the record predicting a 10-2 season, so I think I'll be close.
Catches by Cordale Scott: 10
Midseason prediction: Push. He has six thus far, but none in the past two games.
How it can change: For an 'over' he'll need to be targeted more. For an 'under' he'll need to be further relegated to a blocking role. Pretty cut-and-dry.
What I was thinking: I'm happy with the line I provided.
Sacks allowed by offensive line: 20
Midseason prediction: Over. I should have been less specific and attributed the sack total to the entire offense, not just the line. Technically, a running back, or a tight end, can allow a sack. Sorry for the confusion. Anyway, they're at 11 right now. I guess I'll go over, just because they're on pace for 22 and could end up playing two additional games.
How it can change: Fewer close games would equal fewer passes in the second half. That, in theory, would lead to fewer sacks.
What I was thinking: No regrets. My line seems about right.
Long field goal by J.D. Detmer: 52 yards
Midseason prediction: Under. Detmer's long is of 42.
How it can change: First, he has to be summoned to try another of 52 yards. He missed from that distance against Western Michigan when it was blocked.
What I was thinking: Detmer converted from 52 yards last year, indoors at Syracuse. He'll kick in similar conditions if Toledo makes it to Ford Field for the MAC title game.
Touchdown catches by Bernard Reedy: 12
Midseason prediction: Under. Reedy has three TD catches.
How it can change: Best case scenario is he will have to catch nine TD passes over eight games. Slim chance.
What I was thinking: Didn't think the offense would be this balanced, and I figured it might be more explosive. Reedy has played well. Twelve is a huge number. I probably wasn't being fair to him.
High point total allowed by defense: 48
Midseason prediction: Under. The high water mark thus far is Central Michigan's 35.
How it can change: A rash of injuries at the back end.
What I was thinking: After getting blasted for 60 points in consecutive weeks last year, I figured the defense would implode at some point. Hasn't happened due to decent play and a conservative scheme.
Different starters at cornerback: 3.5
Midseason prediction: Under. Three have been used: Dukes, Norrils, and Best.
How it can change: Jordan Haden is promoted.
What I was thinking: I am happy with the line.
Average attendance for home games: 22,157
Midseason prediction: Under. The average through three games is 22,128. The Cincinnati game should draw 25K but turnouts against Ball State and Akron could be sparse.
How it can change: Good temperatures for the Ball State and Akron games. If Toledo needs to win the regular season finale against Akron to capture the West division, weather conditions become irrelevant.
What I was thinking: I used last year's average home attendance.