Rocket Docket

Blog swap with Buffalo beat writer

This week's guest is Bob DiCesare of The Buffalo News. Bob was kind enough to answer my questions ...

1. Buffalo has played a brutal schedule and has been competitive in several losses. However, the Bulls haven't shown much the past two weeks. In your opinion, are they getting tired from such a grueling succession of games?

You're right. Their schedule is brutal under any circumstances, particularly so for a team coming off a three-win season. I think it caught up with them in that total clunker they turned in at Northern Illinois. They had nothing that day. They got blown off the line. And now with this game they'll have opened with the top four teams in the MAC -- Kent, Ohio, NIU and Toledo. They were without Branden Oliver the last month and Alex Neutz, one of the top WRs in the MAC, in the Pitt game. Saturday should be the first time since the first half of the Kent game on Sept. 19 all key offensive starters should be available. In part it's been kind of a perfect storm scenario.

2. The key to beating Toledo, in my opinion, is to cover its receivers. Arizona did a great job of it, and Cincinnati (although in defeat) limited Toledo's vertical game. Is Buffalo as good against the pass as its statistics (second in the MAC) indicate?

We shall see. This is the best passing attack they've faced since the opener against Georgia. And the fastest set of receivers they've seen since Georgia. The DEs and LBs can bring pressure but the DBs rarely play press coverage and teams have had good luck moving the chains against them with short passes as a result. Free safety Witney Sherry is questionable after missing the Pitt game. Derek Brim played extremely well in his place. Safety play will be big for the Bulls Saturday because I've seen Reedy run. They're not covering him one-on-one.

3. It looks like Buffalo is starting to get healthy. What will the return of Branden Oliver mean to an offense that has been lifeless the past two weeks? Also, will any of the other players returning to health be factors Saturday?

Oliver's huge but not because they've been starving in the running game. True freshman went over 100 in two of three starts as Oliver's replacement. But Bo, as he's known, brings another dimension because he's so difficult to bring down and has pretty good speed once he gets into the secondary. Bulls need some big plays out of the offense because the defense isn't forcing any turnovers. The return of Neutz is large for the passing game. He's their best receiver hands down. It looks like they're also getting back their No. 2, Fred Lee, who's been out since the first half of the Kent game as well.

4. Alex Zordich hasn't put up very good numbers. Is he struggling because of his supporting cast, or is the offense struggling because of Zordich?

Ah, the old chicken or egg question. It's both. They went to more of a short-routes, quick-release West Coast-style passing attack against Pitt to try to get Zordich into a rhythm. It helped. I think that's the best approach with him because he's not a great passer. He came out of a running high school (Cardinal Mooney, Youngstown) and that's his forte. He can run and he's tough. That said, the receiving corps outside of Neutz has been a disappointment going back to training camp no matter who was at QB. Maybe it's on the upswing. Devon Hughes and John Dunmore have emerged the last two games after barely being heard from early on. Lee should be back.

5. It was just a few years ago that Buffalo shook up the MAC and won the league title. What must happen for this program to again be a factor in this league?

Let's go back to that season. They beat Temple on a last-play Hail Mary. They won at Akron in four OTs and Bowling Green in two OTs after trailing by 14 in the fourth. That was the difference between 5-3 and 2-6. Pretty scant. Then they knocked off Ball State in the title game on the strength of two long fumble returns for TDs. Four players off that team -- including the top three offensive weapons -- got NFL looks and two are still in the league. Yet everything had to fall perfectly into place for them to win the MAC. That's how competitive this league is. That defense forced over 30 turnovers. This one has three. The offense doesn't know the meaning of a short field. So we should start there. If you don't have a dynamic offense you better have a defense that makes the other team cough it up. And this defense -- although pretty decent overall -- hasn't done that.

Blog swap with Cincinnati beat writer

Thanks to the Cincinnati's Enquirer's Bill Koch for his participation. My questions, his answers ...

1. Cincinnati has played two fewer games than many teams in this country. As a beat writer, are you still trying to figure out this team?

Very much so. Not only have they played two fewer games than most teams, two of their wins have come against FCS competition and another has come against a Miami team that they have beaten seven years in a row. Even their one quality victory was over Virginia Tech, which has been a major disappointment.

2. Butch Jones said this week his defense needs to get better in a hurry. I know the schedule has been soft, but the numbers suggest they've been solid. Where do you stand on this?

It's hard to argue with a defense that has allowed only 14.4 points per game. But they are susceptible to the pass and have gotten off to a slow start in each of the last two weeks. They have come up with seven interceptions and average 3.2 sacks per game, but they still have a long way to go.

 

3. What are the strengths and weaknesses of quarterback Munchie Legaux?

Legaux does not possess the accuracy that defined previous UC quarterbacks Zach Collaros and Tony Pike. At least he hasn't displayed it yet, but he is very productive as a runner and seems to be resourceful enough to make a big play when the Bearcats need one. Even though he's a junior, this is his first year as a starter so he's still learning but he has a lot of potential.

 

4. A Big East question: The conference has three unbeaten teams, with Cincinnati being one of them. Do you expect come January we'll be saying this was a banner year for the Big East?

Certainly it has been a banner year to this point because all three of its unbeaten teams are staying in the league, so it provides hope for the future for a league that has lost much of its stature in recent years due to conference realignment. But this league is known for its balance. Generally there is no dominant team and that's even more true now that West Virginia has left. In fact, if there has been anything close to a dominant team in recent years it has been UC, which has won or shared three of the last four league titles.

 

5. In what area(s) do you suspect Toledo will fare well on Saturday?

Toledo should have success throwing the ball and will no doubt benefit from a juiced crowd looking for an upset of a ranked BCS school, but I wonder if their defense will be able to slow a UC offense that has been very good so far this season, especially in its last two games.

Thoughts/observations from win over Eastern Michigan

First, the game story on a truly astounding third quarter and the sidebar on Toledo's receivers blocking downfield.

Other stuff:

-"Embarrassing" is an overused and often unfair term used in sports, but it applies to Toledo's defensive performance. For the second time this year - Arizona being the other - the Rockets were shredded for 624 yards. This is inexcusable regardless of the opponent, let alone one that ranked No. 120 in offense entering the day and had not scored 20 points since the opener. Unforgivable. It's back to square one for this unit. The defensive line has struggled amid the losses of three starters. Getting Danny Farr back (perhaps this week) should help, but one guy can only do so much.

-David Fluellen has posted 100-yard outings in the past three games and four times this season. With Cassius McDowell hurt (the extent of his injury is unknown), Fluellen's role could increase even more. David Pasquale and Damion Jones-Moore (currently in redshirt) could fill-in, but my guess is we'll see a whole lot of Fluellen if McDowell is out.

-A key moment in the game came at the end of the first half when Eastern Michigan was penalized for false start on fourth-and-2 at midfield and then punted. With even a field goal the Eagles would have made it a one-possession game heading into halftime. Another key moment came immediately after. After Terrance Owens hit Bernard Reedy for 40 yards the two hooked up again for 32 yards before Reedy slipped and fell at the 13 on what would have been a touchdown. Owens threw an interception on the next play trying to force a ball to Alonzo Russell at the back of the end zone.

-Some stats: Owens' 401 passing yards are a career-high, and Reedy's 407 all-purpose yards are a school record. ... EMU was 3-for-3 on red zone chances, this coming after CMU was 4-for-4 last week. ... Dan Molls recorded 18 tackles - one fewer than his career high - upping his national lead to 89. He also picked off a pass on the first play of the game. ... Jeremiah Detmer has made a field goal in every game and is 13 of 18 on the season. His consistency inside 35 yards cannot be understated. ... Toledo's 91-yard TD drive in the second quarter was its third this season of 90 yards or more. 

-Against Coastal Carolina, Central Michigan, and Eastern Michigan, Toledo seemingly played down to the level of its competitor. Will the Rockets raise their game Saturday against what looks to be a superior opponent in Cincinnati? They better, otherwise it will be a long night. 

-Speaking of the Bearcats, they are one of three FBS teams from Ohio still unbeaten. The Buckeyes and Bobcats are the others. That doesn't take into account two one-loss teams in Toledo and Kent State. This has been a banner year in the state. Bowling Green deserves recognition too. The Falcons should be 6-3 in two weeks after knocking off winless teams Massachusetts and Eastern Michigan. 

-Any doubt that Toledo and Northern Illinois will be playing for the West title on Nov. 14 in DeKalbdissolved Saturday when Ball State beat Western Michigan in overtime. A few weeks ago the West looked mighty, and now every team save for UT and NIU has two or three losses.

Before the season began, I issued lines for a game of "over/under" and asked readers to participate. Here's where we stand at the midway point of the year.

Percentage of snaps taken by quarterback Terrance Owens: 65

Midseason prediction: Over. No need to go through the tediuos task of adding up the numbers. Not even close at this point.

How it can change: Injury or demotion.

What I was thinking: Figured to see Owens receive the bulks of reps in a two-quarterback system. Didn't think he'd be the permanent guy.

Rushing yards by David Fluellen: 875

Midseason prediction: Over. Fluellen has 604 yards, which equates to 1,208 over a 12-game season. Throw in a bowl game, and perhaps the MAC title game, and he should easily clear my expectation.

How it can change: Short of an injury that forces him to the sideline for several games, it won't.

What I was thinking: Figured Cassius McDowell (52 attempts to Fluellen's 112) would be getting more work. Also didn't suspect Fluellen would go off for more than 200 yards in one game, which he did at Western Michigan. 

Regular season wins: 8.5

Midseason prediction: Over. A 9-3 or 10-2 regular season seem like the safest bets.

How it can change: Losses to Cincinnati, Ball State, and Northern Illinois. Not far fetched.

What I was thinking: I'm on the record predicting a 10-2 season, so I think I'll be close.

Catches by Cordale Scott: 10

Midseason prediction: Push. He has six thus far, but none in the past two games. 

How it can change: For an 'over' he'll need to be targeted more. For an 'under' he'll need to be further relegated to a blocking role. Pretty cut-and-dry.

What I was thinking: I'm happy with the line I provided.

Sacks allowed by offensive line: 20

Midseason prediction: Over. I should have been less specific and attributed the sack total to the entire offense, not just the line. Technically, a running back, or a tight end, can allow a sack. Sorry for the confusion. Anyway, they're at 11 right now. I guess I'll go over, just because they're on pace for 22 and could end up playing two additional games.

How it can change: Fewer close games would equal fewer passes in the second half. That, in theory, would lead to fewer sacks.

What I was thinking: No regrets. My line seems about right. 

Long field goal by J.D. Detmer: 52 yards

Midseason prediction: Under. Detmer's long is of 42.

How it can change: First, he has to be summoned to try another of 52 yards. He missed from that distance against Western Michigan when it was blocked.

What I was thinking: Detmer converted from 52 yards last year, indoors at Syracuse. He'll kick in similar conditions if Toledo makes it to Ford Field for the MAC title game.

Touchdown catches by Bernard Reedy: 12

Midseason prediction: Under. Reedy has three TD catches.

How it can change: Best case scenario is he will have to catch nine TD passes over eight games. Slim chance.

What I was thinking: Didn't think the offense would be this balanced, and I figured it might be more explosive. Reedy has played well. Twelve is a huge number. I probably wasn't being fair to him.

High point total allowed by defense: 48

Midseason prediction: Under. The high water mark thus far is Central Michigan's 35.

How it can change: A rash of injuries at the back end.

What I was thinking: After getting blasted for 60 points in consecutive weeks last year, I figured the defense would implode at some point. Hasn't happened due to decent play and a conservative scheme.

Different starters at cornerback: 3.5

Midseason prediction: Under. Three have been used: Dukes, Norrils, and Best.

How it can change: Jordan Haden is promoted.

What I was thinking: I am happy with the line.

Average attendance for home games: 22,157

Midseason prediction: Under. The average through three games is 22,128. The Cincinnati game should draw 25K but turnouts against Ball State and Akron could be sparse.

How it can change: Good temperatures for the Ball State and Akron games. If Toledo needs to win the regular season finale against Akron to capture the West division, weather conditions become irrelevant.

What I was thinking: I used last year's average home attendance.

Recapping win over Central Michigan

Toledo used two pick-sixes in the fourth quarter to beat Central Michigan, 50-35. The win came because of, and also in spite of, an uneven day by Bernard Reedy, who blamed his pink attire for early miscues. To cap off our coverage, check out Dave Zapotosky's photo gallery.

Some additional thoughts/notes/observations

-The Northern Illinois game is five weeks away, but a sense is building that it will be for the West division title. Ball State and Central Michigan, each with two league losses, are in trouble. As is Western Michigan until Alex Carder returns. Winless Eastern Michigan was never a factor. That leaves MAC unbeatens NIU and UT left to sort out the division hiearchy once again.

-UT should get bowl eligible Saturday against a terrible Eastern Michigan game. Quite honestly, a poor performance similar to the one the Rockets gave against Coastal Carolina might be enough to get the job done. 

-If you missed it in the notes section of the Reedy story, defensive end Christian Smith (knee) is out for the season. MRI results are misleading, Campbell said, so the prognosis has not been determined. But whatever the images revealed wasn't good. This leaves Toledo without three starting defensive linemen until Danny Farr returns in the next week or so.

-Toledo's special teams continue to excel. Detmer converted three more field goals, upping his season mark to 12 of 17 (70 percent), and Reedy scored Toledo's first touchdown on a punt return since Eric Page did it last year against Eastern Michigan. The coverage units were stout as well. CMU's longest kick return was 27 yards, and its longest punt return was nine yards. Campbell is putting his biggest hitters on the coverage units, guys like Molls, Voss, Haden, and Pasquale, and it's producing great results.

-Speaking of Pasquale, he has made several unsung plays this year. His block early in the play sprung a 53-yard Reedy punt return in the first quarter. Also, his stubborness to go down on a third-down goalline play gave Toledo the yard it had lost on the previous play by David Fluellen. Pasquale's tough yards late against Coastal Carolina, with Fluellen out with a head injury, were of importance. This is a fifth-year senior who has quietly contributed to his team's success.

-I forgot to ask Campbell about the injury Justin Olack suffered to his arm. The sure-handed receiver did not return. Will get an update on his health Monday.

-Campbell was not pleased with several calls or non calls. His reaction to pass interference not being called in the end zone against Alonzo Russell was as heated as I've seen him. He also had some words with officials after Reedy's second lost fumble (not sure why) and on a play he thought warranted an offensive pass interference against the Chips.

-Campbell wasn't perfect, either. His burning of his team's final timeout after Singer's interception return could have been regrettable. After summoning the extra point unit onto the field, Campbell realized that with his team up by 12 he had made a mistake and called timeout.That can't happen. 

-This from UT's sports information department: We had an issue in the third quarter where we got behind and a play and penalty was omitted. As a result, CMU's Titus Davis has 10 more receiving yards, Toledo's David Fluellen has 1 more carry and four more rushing yards, Toledo's Terrance Owens has one fewer completion, Toledo's James Green has 1 fewer reception and four less receiving yards. I just wanted you to know so if you see later that Fluellen had 104 yards you would know why. Also TO was 22-of-33 instead of 23-of-33.

-Some stats: The Rockets rank third in the MAC with 15 sacks after posting two more on Saturday ... They have given up 11 sacks (fourth most in the MAC) which is one more than they allowed all of last season. ... With nine interceptions, Toledo ranks seventh nationally and first in the MAC. ...The No. 1 red zone defense in the MAC struggled Saturday, letting CMU score a touchdown on all four of its visits inside the 20.

Blog swap with Central Michigan beat writer

This week we interview Central Michigan beat writer Nate Schneider of the Morning Sun. Here is a link to my answers to his questions. Below are his answers to my questions.

1) What strides if any has CMU quarterback Ryan Radcliff taken in this his senior year? 

I think the main strides Radcliff has made is in his decision-making and not forcing things that aren't there. Those strides have specifically been noticeable in the last two games as in the first two he was average versus Southeast Missouri, then extremely poor against Michigan State. But he has made the right reads the last week and shown the leadership a fifth-year senior and third-year starter should be showing. The one interception he threw at Northern Illinois was on a tipped pass and not necessarily his fault. Aside from a slightly shaky beginning, he played well and dealt with five or so drops by receivers. He was very effective and gave CMU a chance to win.

2) A 31-point loss at Northern Illinois looks deceiving. How close was Central Michigan to being in this game until the end? 

It was very close until the latter minutes of the third quarter. Down 27-21 five-plus minutes into the third, Radcliff threw a deep pass down the left sideline that in my opinion wide receiver Titus Davis should have reeled in for a touchdown. There was some debate as to whether Davis should be expected to make the catch, but in my opinion and many others including Chippewas head coach Dan Enos the catch should have been made. It could have been a game-changer. Instead, Radcliff threw the interception on the tip a few plays later and NIU turned it into a touchdown. Then two CMU drives later and the score still a manageable 34-24 deficit early in the fourth, running back Zurlon Tipton tried to power ahead for extra yards near midfield and was stripped before he went down. The Huskies turned it into another TD and the rout was on. Those two turnovers were the difference. Up until then, Central Michigan had a great chance to pull the upset but the back was broken after that and it turned out to be more lopsided on the scoreboard than much of the game dictated.

3) What's the mood around the team about opening up MAC play in back-to-back weeks on the road against two of the top teams in the MAC?

Enos and company saw the schedule and knew it would be difficult. The reality is that the entire four-game stretch of Michigan State, Iowa, Northern Illinois, and Toledo with three of those contests on the road was clearly going to be the most difficult part of the season to manage. I think the overall mood is that this is the hand that they were dealt and there is no use complaining about it. The win over Iowa clearly helped morale and I honestly don't really think it was damaged much in the loss at NIU. I think the feeling is that the win was there for the taking and if a cleaner effort had been given, there was a chance to pull the upset. This game at Toledo is huge in the mindset of the CMU coaching staff and roster I believe, because if somehow an upset can be manufactured the rest of the schedule is less daunting than what has been dealt with thus far.

4) Is this a make-or-break year for CMU coach Dan Enos?

I don't necessarily it is a make-or-break year. The administration really likes what he is doing in terms of recruiting and community engagement, although the fan base as a whole has soured a bit on him after the back-to-back 3-9 seasons. The win at Iowa did help regain some trust, however. With Enos sitting at 2-2 right now, I feel five or six wins this season will keep his job safe for sure. But a collapse that leaves CMU with another 3-9 record could signal the end of the line.

5) What's this team's greatest strength? How about greatest weakness?

I think CMU's greatest strength is in the offensive balance. The experience at quarterback helps, then it has a strong running back in Zurlon Tipton as well as wide receiver depth beginning with Cody Wilson and Davis. When you look at the offensive line, it is strong all across the board starting with 6-foot-7 left tackle Eric Fisher who is a potential NFL first round draft pick. Even when the Chippewas lost fellow 6-7 right tackle Jake Olson to a knee injury against MSU, another senior in Mike Repovz stepped in admirably. Repovz had started a total of 17 games prior to his two starts this season in Olson's absence, so it was not as difficult of a transition as it could have been. The biggest weakness would have to be defensive tackling and over-pursuit of opposing ball carriers. I think Enos said Tuesday that he counted somewhere between 17 and 19 missed tackles, so that has to be shored up if CMU has any shot at making noise in the MAC. Plus far too many times against NIU 11 players went to the ball, leaving the entire opposite side of the field open to cut back. Another weakness would have to be in special teams. Kicker David Harman and punter Richie Hogan have both been solid, but both kickoff and punt coverage need major work as large chunks of yards have been given up seemingly every return.