Written by my colleague, BGSU beat writer John Wagner.
Even though there are still three games left on the regular-season schedule, some things have already been decided in Mid-American Conference women’s basketball. For example, three teams – Bowling Green, Eastern Michigan and Toledo – have guaranteed themselves byes into the quarterfinals of the MAC tournament, and Miami probably will clinch the fourth spot by week’s end.
But not everything is clear just yet, although this week should increase the clarity at the top, middle and bottom of the standings. At the top, Tuesday’s EMU-UT battle will likely determine which two teams get byes to the semifinals, and Saturday’s contest between BG and Miami will help in that regard as well.
In the middle, Northern Illinois enters a tough stretch in the schedule, while Akron is on the road twice this week, which may give other schools a chance to rise in the standings. And at the bottom all four teams still have a shot at moving up enough to claim a first-round home game in the tournament, although the window is about to snap shut on Buffalo.
As it stands now, here is our look at how the league has shaped up after 13 conference games. …
1. BOWLING GREEN (22-4, 12-1 MAC) (LW #1): The Falcons won twice last week, but neither game was particularly impressive. In fact, winning by only 10 at home against the team with the league’s worst record is probably a bit of an indictment. Has the wind gone out of the Falcons’ sails because of the loss at Toledo? We’ll find out Saturday when BG hosts Miami at the Stroh Center. If the Falcons can win that contest, they will claim one of the two berths in the semifinals of the league tournament. RPI: 63.
Tournament road: At Ohio, home vs. Miami, at Kent State.
2. EASTERN MICHIGAN (19-7, 11-2 MAC) (LW #2): The Eagles already have clinched a berth in the quarterfinals of the MAC tournament, and a win at home over Toledo Tuesday would practically guarantee EMU advances directly to the semifinals. The Eagles enter Tuesday’s contest on a seven-game winning streak, but UT has won 10 straight – including a win over Bowling Green. And should the Rockets win the rematch, Toledo then wins the tiebreaker since the Rockets beat BG. If the Eagles beat Toledo, Eastern Michigan gets the tiebreaker with a season’s sweep. RPI: 69.
Tournament road: Home vs. Toledo, home vs. Ball State, at Central Michigan.
3. TOLEDO (18-7, 11-2 MAC) (LW #3): The Rockets have earned a berth in the quarterfinals of the MAC tournament, and they have given themselves a shot at a semifinal berth if they can win at Eastern Michigan. Losing at EMU would probably squash that chance, though, since it would give the Eagles the head-to-head tiebreaker and put UT potentially two games behind Bowling Green with just two games left. The EMU-UT game will be won by … the team that can force the game to be played at its favorite tempo: fast (EMU) or slow (UT). Gut feeling? The Rockets come to rue their horrible, inexplicable loss to Western Michigan in their MAC opener. RPI: 80.
Tournament road: At Eastern Michigan, home vs. Northern Illinois, at Ball State.
4. MIAMI (19-7, 9-4 MAC) (LW #4): The RedHawks may have gotten the train back on the tracks with road wins at Kent State and Buffalo, but it may be too late. Miami loses tiebreakers with both Eastern Michigan and Toledo, and the only way MU catches Bowling Green is if the Falcons lose the rest of their games, which is hard to imagine. The good news is that the RedHawks need just one more win to clinch the fourth and final spot in the quarterfinals, which isn’t a bad consolation prize. Miami can use Saturday’s game at Bowling Green to signal the rest of the league that the RedHawks are a fourth legitimate MAC title contender. RPI: 97.
Tournament road: Home vs. Akron, at Bowling Green, home vs. Ohio.
5. NORTHERN ILLINOIS (12-13, 6-7 MAC) (LW #7): Two weeks ago I admitted that the decision to move this squad all the way from 12th to seventh might be seen as “silly.” But instead the Huskies have validated the move by winning five of their last seven, with the losses coming to Bowling Green and Eastern Michigan. This week may be the most challenging of all, since it includes tough road games at Central Michigan and Toledo. If NIU can win one of those two contests, a first-round home game in the MAC tournament is virtually assured. If it can’t win this week, Northern will need a little help – and probably will get it. RPI: 180.
Tournament road: At Central Michigan, at Toledo, home vs. Western Michigan.
6. AKRON (12-15, 6-7 MAC) (LW #6): The Zips nearly went 4-0 in their just-completed homestand, which gives them a strong shot at a first-round home game in the MAC tournament. It’s not guaranteed, though, so a road win this week would certainly help. If Akron can’t win at Miami on Wednesday – which will be a tall order – the Zips need to sweep their final two games to earn that home bid. Winning at Kent State won’t be easy, but closing out the home schedule against Buffalo should be. RPI: 193.
Tournament road: At Miami, at Kent State, home vs. Buffalo.
7. CENTRAL MICHIGAN (13-14, 5-8 MAC) (LW #5): There’s no shame in losing to Toledo, although the Chippewas did lose by 18 points on their home floor. And losing to Ball State (albeit on the road) on Sunday was another misstep by a team with far more talent that its record would indicate. If this team hopes to host a first-round tournament game it must go 2-0 this week, with the home game against Northern Illinois crucial if the Chippewas want a higher seed. If it comes down to the final game, this team is in trouble because it hosts Eastern Michigan, and the Eagles are on a roll. RPI: 169.
Tournament road: Home vs. Northern Illinois, at Western Michigan, home vs. Eastern Michigan.
8. OHIO (12-15, 5-6 MAC) (LW #8): A crucial home win over Kent State Saturday helped salve the wound caused by a loss at Akron Wednesday. The Bobcats are still hanging on to the eighth seed (and a first-round home game) in the MAC tournament, but it will be tough to hold on now as Bowling Green and Miami still remain on the schedule. Ohio To keep its grip on that home contest, the Bobcats must win at Buffalo Saturday – and OU probably needs to find a way to win one more time as well. RPI: 260.
Tournament road: Home vs. Bowling Green, at Buffalo, at Miami.
9. BALL STATE (9-16, 4-9 MAC) (LW #12): The fact that the Cardinals have risen to the ninth seed is more an indictment of the three teams below it than any kind of reward for Ball State. The Cards did claim a nice home win over Central Michigan on Sunday, but BSU still has lost eight of its last 10. Any chance Ball State has of hosting a first-round tournament home games hinges largely on Wednesday’s home game at Western Michigan, and that contest becomes especially must-win since the schedule finishes with potential losses at Eastern Michigan and home against Toledo. RPI: 259.
Tournament road: Home vs. Western Michigan, at Eastern Michigan, home vs. Toledo.
10. KENT STATE (5-18, 4-9 MAC) (LW #9): I’m still shaking my head over ranking this team in the upper division following its mid-season three-game win streak. That ranking looks especially foolish since this young and generally inexperienced team lost the six games that have followed. Worse for the Golden Flashes, Tuesday’s game at Buffalo becomes a must-win if KSU entertains any hopes of a first-round MAC tournament home game, although the Flashes do end the season with back-to-back home games. One problem: Kent State hosts Akron and Bowling Green in those two contests and will be the underdog in both. RPI: 296.
Tournament road: At Buffalo, home vs. Akron, home vs. Bowling Green.
11. WESTERN MICHIGAN (6-20, 3-10 MAC) (LW #10): Last week I wrote that Northern Illinois’ win over Miami was the MAC upset of the year. After watching Toledo beat the Broncos by 26 last Saturday – in a game that wasn’t NEARLY as close as the final score would indicate – I stand correct. How did this team beat the Rockets on Jan. 5? If WMU wants to win again this season, Wednesday’s contest at Ball State is must-win, because the Broncos finish with the sleep-walking Chippewas of CMU (well, that IS a possible win) and a contest at Northern Illinois (I have a hard time envisioning a win there). RPI: 306.
Tournament road: At Ball State, home vs. Central Michigan, at Northern Illinois.
12. BUFFALO (7-20, 2-11) (LW #11): I watched the Bulls play Bowling Green “close” on Wednesday, and I see Buffalo has other “close” losses as well – most notably a two-point home loss to red-hot Toledo. The problem for Buffalo is that “close” only counts in three places: horseshoes, hand grenades and drive-in movies. The Bulls have a pair of winnable games this week as they host Kent State and Ohio. UB must win them, though, and because of all the “close” losses that still probably won’t be enough for Buffalo to rise enough and capture a first-round home game in the MAC tournament. RPI: 210.
Tournament road: Home vs. Kent State, home vs. Ohio, at Akron.