Rocket Docket

Recruiting rankings - how the sausage is made

On Sunday, we published a piece analyzing MAC recruiting rankings from 2007-09 and found multiple inconsistences between the rankings of classes and players and the results on the field. We also found several cases in which Rivals and Scout were dead on. This piece was not meant as a critique of those who evaluate prospects. They spend countless hours trying to get it right. Do they get it wrong? Yes, sometimes. But so do coaches, even ones who have reached the top of their profession like Nick Saban, Urban Meyer and Frank Beamer. Recruiting is an inexact science and it always will be. Here's how Scout.com arrives at its rankings, according to Allen Trieu, Midwest analyst.

The process begins at the state level where analysts view highlight packages, camp performances, and live games. Scout is represented in every state, or close to it, and two guys run the show in Ohio. From there, the state analysts report their findings to a regional manager, such as Trieu. If they believe a prospect is undervalued or overvalued they make the regional manager aware. Regional managers get together once a month — on conference call, I believe — to adjust Scout's national rankings. Thus, a prospect that might have looked just OK at a summer camp can raise his stock with a strong season.

What are the credentials of the analysts? All of them played high school football. Some played in college. Others are former coaches. All have 5-6 years experience in evaluating prospects. "All of us have experience in what a high caliber Division I prospect looks like, what a mid caliber Division I prospect looks like, and what a D-II caliber prospect looks like."

Other notes:

-Trieu said evaluating prospects has become easier in the past few years because of increased exposure through camps and combines.

-Scout does not take into consideration what scholarship offers a prospect has attracted when assessing him a grade. However, if a low-level recruit begins generating several offers, Scout will re-analyze his game tape to determine if they made an error.

More to the story on Sunday's recruiting piece

Wednesday is national signing day, and in preparation for it, my colleague, BGSU beat writer John Wagner and I, co-authored a Sunday piece that looks at MAC recruiting from 2007-09. We decided to not look at 2010 and 2011 because, with a few exceptions, members of those classes have yet to impact their teams either positively or negatively.

I’d invite you to read the story. A lot of research went into it, and there will be a few statistics you come across that surprise you. Maybe even stun you.

As many of you probably know, UT has recruited well. On Wednesday, the Rockets will introduce what is likely their third straight No. 1 class by either Rivals or Scout. But it’s a class that wasn’t ranked highly, 2009, that is most instrumental to the program’s revival. That class, which had just one member - Eric Page - when Tim Beckman inherited it was ranked 11th in the MAC by Scout and fourth by Rivals.

Bowling Green, as John notes, turned in a poorly rated 2008 class that ultimately proved to be even worse than the experts predicted. Thus, BG has struggled the past two seasons.

What follows is some of our research that didn’t make the paper

Rivals average class ranking from 2007-09:

Akron 2 (the same number of wins the Zips achieved the past two seasons)

Ball State T8

Bowling Green 12

Buffalo 13

Central Michigan 10

Eastern Michigan T8

Kent State T4

Miami T4

Northern Illinois 11 (2011 MAC champs)

Ohio 7 (2011 MAC runner up)

Temple 9

Toledo 1 (Rockets were No. 1 in 2007, a class that produced more guys who left school early, 12, than those who stayed, eight)

Western Michigan 3

Scout average class rankings from 2007-09:

Akron T5

Ball State T5

Bowling Green T5

Buffalo 13 (In agreement with Rivals)

Central Michigan 3 

Eastern Michigan 11

Kent State T9

Miami 2

Northern Illinois 12 (Again, MAC champs)

Ohio T9

Temple 1

Toledo 4

Western Michigan T5

As you see, Rivals and Scout disagreed considerably on a number of teams.

 

 

Turnovers sink Rockets

Thoughts on Saturday's 77-61 loss to Kent State:

-This is a game UT needs to be more competitive in. You're at home, coming off a nice road win at Miami, facing a Kent State team that's just so-so right now. Snatching a win is a lot to ask, but you have to be competitive. The Rockets weren't competitive, and their body language was lousy in the second half.

-Sometimes stats lie, but not tonight. If you weren't at the game, didn't watch it online, or didn't read this blog post, you'd have a clear understanding of what went wrong. UT's starting backcourt went 0-for-16 from the field and turned the ball over 12 times. Coach Kowalczyk said Dominique Buckley (0-for-7, four turnovers) played his worst game of the season. He was kinder to Juice Brown, suggesting most of Brown's nine misses from the field came off of decent looks. Brown is struggling with confidence right now, Kowalczyk said, which is common for a freshman facing good competition every night. There's no more Texas Pan-Americans or Chciago States on the schedule.

-Other stats that paint a clear picture: UT missed 15 of 16 3-pointers and turned the ball over 19 times - the most since 20 in the season opener against Texas State. Six of UT's turnovers came on consecutive possessions - yes, six turnovers on consecutive possessions - in the second half. Brown had three of them.

-On the bright side, Rian Pearson tallied 22 points to notch his seventh 20-point game of the season. Pearson had zero turnovers, which frankly surprises me. Could've sworn seeing him lose the ball at least once.

-No time to sulk, which Kowalczyk accused his team of doing in the second half tonight, because a trip to East-leading Akron comes Wednesday.

 

Greetings

Hello Rocket Nation,

I'm your new beat writer and look forward to serving you with an abundance of information on UT athletics. In addition to my daily work in the newspaper, I'll be here to offer analysis on games and the teams that play them. I also can be found providing insight on Twitter under the clever handle RyanAutullo.

A little about me: I've been at The Blade for about six years. Jeez, time flies. I began as a part-time news clerk while working toward my degree at — OK, you're going to have to come to grips with this — Bowling Green. I was the BGSU beat guy at The Blade from 2007-08 before transitioning to University of Michigan where I covered the Wolverines football team the past three years. Covering UT, the hometown team, is a privilege and I am anxious to get engulfed in this beat.

One of the tenets of journalism I try to adhere to is "show, don't tell." I could tell you more about my plans for this blog and the beat, but I'd rather show you. A lot of good stuff is coming down the pipe.

Feel free to leave questions in the comments section of the blog or by emailing me at rautullo@theblade.com, I'll do my best to answer them.

Ryan 

Autullo to cover UT

Blade sports writer Ryan Autullo has been assigned to the beat for University of Toledo sports, which includes the Rocket Docket blog.

Take it away, Ryan!

This is goodbye

It is with mixed emotions that I announce that today is my last day working for The Blade and covering the Toledo Rockets. I have accepted a new position as Assistant Director of Communications and Development at St. John's Jesuit High School & Academy and will be starting later this week.

For the last few years, I've often thought about my future in journalism and what the state of the business will be when I'm 30, 40 and 50 years old. I'm also no longer a single guy who only has to worry about myself. I loved being a sports writer, but I told myself that if a better opportunity ever came along, I owed it to myself and my family to give it serious consideration.

At the end of the day, I believe this new opportunity offers the prospect for a better life and a more stable future for me and my family.

I do want to thank all the editors, writers, administrators, coaches, players and fans I've interacted with over the years, both good and bad. You've helped shape me as a writer and as a person, and for that I'm forever grateful. I'd be remiss if I didn't thank my wife, Adrianne, as well for putting up with many nights and weekends away from home and yet always standing by me. I also want to wish The Blade and the Rockets nothing but continued success and I'll be pulling for both.

 

Best wishes,

Zach