Written by BGSU beat writer John Wagner. ...
Spoiler alert: I didn’t move a single team in this week’s Power Rankings. Not one. Of course, if you want to find out why nothing changed from last week, you’ll need to read on. …
Well, sorry, second spoiler alert: One reason there wasn’t much movement was because each team played only one game last week. While you could make an argument for several changes – Toledo taking the top spot, for example, or a different order of finish in the Akron-Central Michigan-Northern Illinois tangle, for another example – there still are five more games to shed some light on the relative strengths of the league’s 12 teams.
No spoiler, just a prediction: This week’s schedule of games will go a long way towards clarifying what teams will earn the fifth- through eighth-place berths that signal first-round home games in the MAC tournament. Oops, here’s a second prediction: While the top four teams will start earning byes in the league tournament this week, we’ll have to wait until next week to sort out which team gets what bye.
As it stands now, here is our look at how the league has shaped up after 11 conference games. …
1. BOWLING GREEN (20-4, 10-1 MAC) (LW #1): The Falcons finally lost a league game, although losing by two points at Toledo is no embarrassment. In fact, BG remains in the top spot despite the loss since it held its own on the Rockets’ home court, leading for all but roughly two minutes of the contest. The Falcons need one more win to clinch a bye to the MAC tournament quarterfinals, and Miami’s loss Saturday gives them a leg up towards clinching the East Division title. RPI: 66.
Tournament road: Home vs. Buffalo, at Akron, at Ohio, home vs. Miami, at Kent State.
2. EASTERN MICHIGAN (17-7, 9-2 MAC) (LW #2): The Eagles swept through the rest of East Division after losing to Bowling Green, giving them a “magic number” of two to claim a berth in the quarterfinals. And give EMU bonus points for doing what was expected in convincing fashion: the five wins against the East Division were by an average margin of 24 points. Even though the next two games are on the road, there can be no slip-ups as the Eagles prepare for their home game against Toledo that will decide the West Division winner. RPI: 69.
Tournament road: At Western Michigan, at Northern Illinois, home vs. Toledo, home vs. Ball State, at Central Michigan.
3. TOLEDO (16-7, 9-2 MAC) (LW #3): The Rockets have given their resume some more shine with a home win over Bowling Green, the last unbeaten in the MAC. If UT can beat EMU when the two teams meet in Ypsilanti on Feb. 21, the Rockets would hold the tiebreaker … ah, but we’re getting ahead of ourselves, aren’t we? Toledo enters the week with a “magic number” of two to earn a berth in the MAC tournament quarterfinals. But the Rockets also face a challenge Wednesday at Central Michigan, then give themselves a shot at redemption Saturday when they host a Western Michigan club that beat UT to start MAC play. RPI: 82.
Tournament road: At Central Michigan, home vs. Western Michigan, at Eastern Michigan, home vs. Northern Illinois, at Ball State.
4. MIAMI (17-7, 7-4 MAC) (LW #4): Losing to Bowling Green? Understandable. Losing on the road to Eastern Michigan and Toledo? Understandable as well. Losing to Northern Illinois at home? I know I said the Huskies are better, but that’s still not a good loss for the RedHawks. The good thing for Miami is that many of its goals are still attainable, including a quarterfinals bye (although the “magic number” for that berth remains four, and it’s not a lock). Best of all, nearly all of the RedHawks’ goals remain in their hands. RPI: 112.
Tournament road: At Kent State, at Buffalo, home vs. Akron, at Bowling Green, home vs. Ohio.
5. CENTRAL MICHIGAN (13-12, 5-6 MAC) (LW #5): Winning by only six against Buffalo isn’t very impressive, although the game was played on the Bulls’ home court. But a win is a win is a win for a team that had lost five of its previous six. The Chippewas can continue the work of get their train back on track with a home win over Toledo Wednesday –- and CMU led the Rockets for much of the team’s first meeting, so this is doable. Still, time is running out for this talented team to get its act together. RPI: 159.
Tournament road: Home vs. Toledo, at Ball State, home vs. Northern Illinois, at Western Michigan, home vs. Eastern Michigan.
6. AKRON (11-14, 5-6 MAC) (LW #6): The Zips are in the middle of the most promising part of their schedule, and to this point they have taken care of business with home wins over Central Michigan and Western Michigan. This week the home games are against Ohio and Bowling Green … and believe it or not, the game against the Bobcats is the key. Why? A loss to OU really hampers any momentum Akron has gained recently. A win helps energize the Zips to spring an upset on the Falcons Saturday. RPI: 196.
Tournament road: Home vs. Ohio, home vs. Bowling Green, at Miami, at Kent State, home vs. Buffalo.
7. NORTHERN ILLINOIS (11-12, 5-6 MAC) (LW #7): Last week I thought the decision to move this squad all the way to seventh might be seen as “silly.” Now who looks silly? The Huskies have won four of their last five, including a win at Miami that probably is the biggest upset in the MAC this season. Beating Ball State at home Wednesday is critical for NIU, since the next three games are EMU followed by road games at CMU and Toledo. A win over the Cardinals helps give the Huskies the confidence they would need to pull another upset in those three games that follow. RPI: 173.
Tournament road: Home vs. Ball State, home vs. Eastern Michigan, at Central Michigan, at Toledo, home vs. Western Michigan.
8. OHIO (11-14, 4-7 MAC) (LW #8): The Bobcats slowed the tide of losses with a solid home win over Ball State, but this week is a make-or-break proposition for Ohio. Winning at Akron and home against Kent State is doable, and it’s almost a “must” since the rest of the schedule includes loseable games against Bowling Green and Miami sandwiched around a road trip to Buffalo. Winning the contest at home against Kent State is a must, since the two teams are tied for the eighth spot in the MAC tournament – and the last available first-round home game that goes with it. RPI: 254.
Tournament road: At Akron, home vs. Kent State, home vs. Bowling Green, at Buffalo, at Miami.
9. KENT STATE (5-16, 4-7 MAC) (LW #9): I admitted last week that I was hoodwinked by the Golden Flashes’ three-game win streak a few weeks back. Since that time KSU has lost four in a row, including a bad home loss to Ball State. As things stand now the Flashes hold the eighth spot in the standings, meaning they would host a first-round tournament game. Kent State is tied with Ohio for that eighth spot, so winning in Athens on Saturday would go a long way towards solidifying that seed. RPI: 299.
Tournament road: Home vs. Miami, at Ohio, at Buffalo, home vs. Akron, home vs. Bowling Green.
10. WESTERN MICHIGAN (6-18, 3-8 MAC) (LW #10): And talk about hoodwinked: The Broncos’ 2-0 start in MAC play, which included a home win over Toledo, has given way to eight losses in the last nine games, including the last two in a row. Things certainly don’t get any easier for WMU this week as the Broncos host Eastern Michigan before traveling to Toledo. The big question facing Western Michigan is this: Can this team win another game on its schedule? The best chance comes Feb. 22 when the Broncos are at Ball State. RPI: 313.
Tournament road: Home vs. Eastern Michigan, at Toledo, at Ball State, home vs. Central Michigan, at Northern Illinois.
11. BUFFALO (7-18, 2-9) (LW #11): The good news for the Bulls is that there is light at the end of the tunnel: After a road game Wednesday, the next three contests are at home. But that light could be an oncoming train: Buffalo’s road game is against MAC leader Bowling Green, and the first home contest is against second-place Miami. A win against either of those two teams could light a spark to the finish, which includes winnable home games against Kent State and Ohio. RPI: 211.
Tournament road: At Bowling Green, home vs. Miami, home vs. Kent State, home vs. Ohio, at Akron.
12. BALL STATE (8-15, 3-8 MAC) (LW #12): I thought this team might struggle to win at Ohio … but I never imagined a 19-point loss. Suddenly, a road game at Northern Illinois looms large for the Cardinals. That’s because there aren’t many wins left on the schedule, even though three of the final four games are at home. Beating Western Michigan at home Feb. 22 becomes critical for seeding purposes, and losing two in a row and seven of the last nine will force this team to pull an upset if it wants to host a first-round home game in the MAC tournament. RPI: 259.
Tournament road: At Northern Illinois, home vs. Central Michigan, home vs. Western Michigan, at Eastern Michigan, home vs. Toledo.