Falcon Fodder

Wake up grumpy ... and this is the result

OK, I woke up on the wrong side of the bed this morning. And I woke up too early. And I ... you get the message. I'm grumpy ... and so are you, judging by my e-mails and tweets.

So let's have a grump-off. Good luck ...

• I received an e-mail blaming my parents for Toledo’s Naama Shafir not being named Mid-American Conference women’s basketball player of the year. My parents? Sure: My parents met, they had me, and I was to blame … Hahaha. Really funny. I guess.

For those of you blaming The Blade’s BG writer for a Toledo player not getting the award, I have one word for you: Wrong. I voted for Shafir at the top of my ballot. What’s more, we were allowed to vote for second and third as well … and my second vote went to Crystal Bradford of Central Michigan, with my third going to Courtney Osborn of Miami. I didn’t even give a vote to the eventual winner, Akron’s Rachel Tecca. So there.

• I'm tired of people sending me messages that say BG made a “terrible decision” to give men’s basketball coach Louis Orr the final year of his contract. Here’s the problem: Many people view it as a basketball-only decision, and the more I’ve thought about it, the less I agree. I think all of the circumstances surrounding the program and the school played a role.

If you’d like to get up to speed on this decision, click here to read some thoughts I had about why the decision was made. Click here to read Dave Hackenberg’s column about the decision.

OK, consider this: You own a car, but you’re not totally satisfied with it and you want to buy a new one. You still owe some money on your car, and the car dealership won’t help you with the payment. What’s more, the new cars you are looking at will be MUCH more expensive than the car payment you are already making. And to add insult to injury, your boss just told you that pay cuts are in the works for your business.

Still going to buy that new car?

Yes, it’s crass to compare a human being, a coach, to a car, so my apologies to Coach Orr for that. But I hope you understand the point: This decision isn’t happening in a vacuum.

One thing I have heard a lot is that people think the Bowling Green men’s basketball program will “fall further behind” other schools in the MAC? To which I say: Really? If this were the MAC of 15 years ago, maybe. But the MAC had just one NCAA team, only one NIT team (and a SIXTH seed at that!), and only two CIT teams. Bowling Green was in the CIT last season. ...

• Speaking of coaching changes, two MAC schools (Ball State and Buffalo) have changed coaches. I had one reader ask if I thought there would be others. I don’t, mainly because I don’t think any other school is in a position where change is imminent.

By that I mean the teams that are most likely to change –- current bottom-dwellers such as Miami and Northern Illinois would be two examples -– have recently made a change. Miami’s John Cooper has only had one season, and NIU’s Mark Montgomery has only had two. I’d be surprised if those programs made changes. Akron may lose Keith Dambrot, but that would be Dambrot’s decision to move up the ladder, not the school’s choice.

The only coach who might still be feeling heat is Rob Senderoff at Kent State. The Golden Flashes have been good recently, but not good enough for a suddenly spoiled fan base that expects NCAA tournament runs and isn’t even getting NCAA tournament bids.

By the way, in reading about the Ball State basketball situation I came across this story where Dambrot said he felt only three MAC programs were “fully invested” in basketball. Guess what three schools that would be? Then click here to read the story where Dambrot explains his answer.

If you’re surprised by Buffalo’s move to fire coach Reggie Witherspoon, click here to read a column on the move by the Buffalo News.

• One question from an intelligent reader (Thank you, Sam!) asked if I felt Toledo would receive an at-large bid to the NCAA women’s tournament. Sam laid out a well-reasoned platform for why he thought the Rockets deserved a bid, then asked my opinion.

Sam, the bad news is that I would be surprised if the Rockets received an at-large bid. Yes, I know the record is good (27-3) and the RPI is worthy (45, at last glance).

But the strength of schedule is bad (202, at last glance) and truthfully there’s no excuse for that: Central Michigan’s strength of schedule is 55, and women’s basketball coaches around the country knew entering the season how talented the Chippewas would be. Is it easy for a good team like UT to play a tougher schedule? Of course not, because it would mean more road games against top-notch opponents. But the alternative is the current situation: Wondering if the team had done enough to earn an at-large bid, knowing in your heart of hearts that it hasn’t.

Want to share your grumpiness? Click on the "Post a Comment" area below and voice your opinions. Keep it clean, keep it civil, and it will be all good. Add your thoughts NOW!

MAC women's basketball tournament update

Here is an update on the Mid-American Conference women's basketball tournament pairings ...

FIRST ROUND

Saturday, March 9

At Campus Sites

Game 1: No. 9 Western Michigan 80, No. 8 Eastern Michigan 72

Game 2: No. 7 Buffalo 56, Northern Illinois 46

Game 3: No. 6 Miami 83, No. 11 Ohio 61

Game 4: No. 5 Bowling Green 76, No. 12 Kent State 36

SECOND ROUND

Wednesday, March 13

At Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland

Game 5: Western Michigan v. Bowling Green, noon

Game 6: Buffalo v. Miami, 2:30 p.m.

THIRD ROUND

Thursday, March 14

At Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland

Game 7: Winner Game 6 v. No. 4 Central Michigan, noon

Game 8: Winner Game 5 v. No. 3 Akron, 2:30 p.m.

SEMIFINALS

Friday, March 15

At Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland

Game 9: Winner Game 7 v. No. 1 Toledo, noon

Game 10: Winner Game 8 v. No. 2 Ball State, 2:30 p.m.

CHAMPIONSHIP

At Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland

Saturday, March 16th

Game 11: Semifinal winners, 1 p.m.

Mid-American Conference women's basketball 2013 Tournament pairings, tiebreakers and schedule

Here is a breakdown for the Mid-American Conference women's basketball tournament pairings ...

FIRST ROUND

Saturday, March 9

At Campus Sites

Game 1: No. 9 Western Michigan at No. 8 Eastern Michigan, 2:30 p.m.

Game 2: No. 10 Northern Illinois at No. 7 Buffalo, 2 p.m.

Game 3: No. 11 Ohio at No. 6 Miami, 2 p.m.

Game 4: No. 12 Kent State at No. 5 Bowling Green, 1 p.m.

SECOND ROUND

Wednesday, March 13

At Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland

Game 5: Winner Game 1 v. Winner Game 4, noon

Game 6: Winner Game 2 v. Winner Game 3, 2:30 p.m.

THIRD ROUND

Thursday, March 14

At Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland

Game 7: Winner Game 6 v. No. 4 Central Michigan, noon

Game 8: Winner Game 5 v. No. 3 Akron, 2:30 p.m.

SEMIFINALS

Friday, March 15

At Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland

Game 9: Winner Game 7 v. No. 1 Toledo, noon

Game 10: Winner Game 8 v. No. 2 Ball State, 2:30 p.m.

CHAMPIONSHIP

At Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland

Saturday, March 16th

Game 11: Semifinal winners, 1 p.m.

Here's how the Mid-American Conference standings looked. ...

1.    Toledo (15-1)

2.    Ball State (12-4)

3.    Akron (12-4)

4.    Central Michigan (12-4)

5.    Bowling Green (11-5)

6.    Miami (10-6)

7.    Buffalo (8-8)

8.    Eastern Michigan (6-10)

9.    Western Michigan (6-10)

10.    Northern Illinois (2-14)

11.    Ohio (1-15)

12.    Kent State (1-15)

Here is how the ties were broken …

• Second through fourth seeds: The first tiebreaker is head-to-head record. Akron beat Ball State but lost to Central Michigan (1-1); Ball State swept Central Michigan and lost to Akron (2-1); Central Michigan beat Akron but lost to Ball State twice (1-2). Based on winning percentage, it's Ball State as the second seed (.667), Akron as the third seed (.500) and Central Michigan as the fourth seed (.333).
• Eighth and ninth seeds: Eastern Michigan swept two games against Western Michigan to win the tiebreaker.
• Eleventh and twelveth seeds: This came down to a coin flip because the tie could not be broken, and Ohio won the coin flip to become the 11th seed. Since Kent State lost, it was the 12th seed.

MAC women's hoops tourney pairings as of March 3

Here's a how the Mid-American Conference standings would look, the remaining game for each team, and the best- and worst-case scenarios for each team (in other words, the best and worst finishes possible for each team and the realistic finishing place for every MAC squad (“Real” category). ...

Seed	Team	MAC	Game Remaining	Best	Real	Worst
No. 1	Toledo	14-1	BSU	1	1	1
No. 2	BSU	12-3	@UT	2	2	3
No. 3	CMU	11-4	@EMU	3	3	4
No. 4	Akron	11-4	@UB	2	4	4
No. 5	BGSU	10-5	@KSU	3	5	6
No. 6	Miami	9-6	@OU	5	6	7
No. 7	Buffalo	8-7	UA	6	7	7
No. 8	EMU	6-9	CMU	8	8	8
No. 9	WMU	5-10	NIU	9	9	9
No. 10	NIU	2-13	@WMU	10	10	10
No. 11	KSU	1-14	BG	11	11-12	12
No. 11	OU	1-14	MU	11	11-12	12

Here is how I broke the ties in the standings …

• Third seed: Central Michigan beat Akron head-to-head.
• 11th seed: I believe this will come down to a coin flip. The tie currently cannot be broken since the two teams split their season series against one another and did not win another game (at least to this point). One of them will have to win another game to claim the 11th seed without a coin flip.

Here’s a breakdown of the seedings…

• First seed. Toledo has clinched the top seed.
• Second seed. If Ball State loses AND Akron wins AND Central Michigan loses, Akron will be the second seed. In any other scenario, Ball State will be the second seed. Central Michigan cannot be the second seed (the best the Chippewas can do is tie with BSU, and their 0-2 record against the Cardinals will cause them to lose tiebreakers). Akron needs CMU to lose also because the Zips lose a head-to-head tiebreaker with the Chippewas.
• Third seed. If Ball State doesn’t win the second seed, Ball State must be the third seed. Assuming that doesn’t happen … IF Bowling Green wins at KSU AND Central Michigan loses at EMU AND Akron loses at Buffalo, Bowling Green will be the third seed. … IF Akron wins at UB AND Central Michigan loses at EMU, Akron will be the third seed. … In all other scenarios Central Michigan would be the third seed.
• Fourth seed. IF Bowling Green wins at Kent State AND Central Michigan loses at Eastern Michigan AND Akron wins at Buffalo, Bowling Green is the fourth seed. … IF CMU wins, Akron is the fourth seed regardless of its result. … If CMU loses at Eastern Michigan AND Akron wins at Buffalo AND Bowling Green loses at Kent State, Central Michigan is the fourth seed.
• Fifth seed. IF Central Michigan loses at EMU AND Bowling Green wins at KSU AND Akron wins at Buffalo, Central Michigan would be the fifth seed (BG wins tiebreaker with head-to-head win). … IF Bowling Green loses at Kent State AND Miami wins at Ohio, Miami would be the fifth seed. … If BG wins at KSU but is shut out of the third and fourth seeds, Bowling Green would be the fifth seed. Akron cannot be the fifth seed since it wins a head-to-head tiebreaker with BG (East Division victories: even with a loss UA would be 8-2, BG can do no better than 7-3) and would not lose a three-way tiebreaker involving CMU (both UA and BG would be 2-1, CMU would be 1-1).
• Sixth seed. IF Bowling Green loses at Kent State AND Miami wins at Ohio, Bowling Green would be the sixth seed. Assuming BG wins at KSU, IF Buffalo beats Akron AND Miami loses to Ohio, Buffalo would be the sixth seed. If any other scenario, Miami would be the sixth seed.
• Seventh seed. If Buffalo beats Akron AND Miami loses to Ohio, Miami would be the seventh seed. In any other scenario, Buffalo will be the seventh seed. UPDATED: This isn't completely true ... in the first scenario (UB beats UA and MU loses to OU), it assumes Akron still finishes in front of BG so Buffalo wins the tiebreaker. If BG finishes in front of Akron, Miami wins the tiebreaker with its 2-0 record vs. BG (Buffalo is 1-1). See why my brain is bleeding?
• Eighth seed. Eastern Michigan has clinched the eighth seed. Even if the Eagles lose and Western Michigan wins, EMU wins the tiebreaker with a 2-0 record against the Broncos.
• Ninth seed. Western Michigan has clinched the ninth seed. The Broncos cannot beat the Eagles and no one can catch them at this position.
• Tenth seed. Northern Illinois has clinched the tenth seed. The Huskies cannot catch WMU and win tiebreakers with Kent State and Ohio (and a three-way tiebreaker) thanks to wins over the Golden Flashes and Bobcats.
• Eleventh and twelfth seed. Currently tied. If Kent State beats Bowling Green, Kent State would be the 11th seed. If KSU loses and Ohio beats Miami, Ohio would be the 11th seed. If both teams lose, this will come down to a coin flip.

Want to check my work? Then you need to know how to break ties in standings. And here's how to break them …

• Ball State: WINS a tiebreaker with Central Michigan (2-0 head-to-head). LOSES a tiebreaker with Akron (lost head-to-head).
• Akron: WINS a tiebreaker with Ball State (won head-to-head). LOSES a tiebreaker with Central Michigan (lost head-to-head). WINS a tiebreaker with Bowling Green (since two teams would tie for East Division title, tiebreaker is division record: Akron can do no worse than 8-2, BG no better than 7-3).
• Central Michigan: WINS a tiebreaker with Akron (won head-to-head). LOSES a tiebreaker with Ball State (0-2 head-to-head). LOSES a tiebreaker with Bowling Green (lost head-to-head).
• Bowling Green: WINS a tiebreaker with Central Michigan (won head-to-head). LOSES a tiebreaker with Akron (Zips have better East Division record). LOSES a tiebreaker with Miami (0-2 head-to-head).
• Miami: WINS a tiebreaker with Bowling Green (2-0 head-to-head). LOSES a tiebreaker with Buffalo (to tie, Buffalo would have to beat Akron; UB would be 1-1 against Zips, Miami is 0-2).
• Buffalo: WINS a tiebreaker with Miami (to tie, Buffalo would have to beat Akron; UB would be 1-1 against the Zips, Miami is 0-2).
• Eastern Michigan: WINS a tiebreaker with Western Michigan (2-0 head-to-head).
• Western Michigan: LOSES a tiebreaker with Eastern Michigan (2-0 head-to-head).
• Northern Illinois: WINS a tiebreaker with Kent State (won head-to-head). WINS a tiebreaker with Ohio (won head-to-head).
• Kent State & Ohio: Both LOSE a tiebreaker with Northern Illinois (both lost head-to-head). IF both teams win Tuesday, Kent State would WIN the tiebreaker (1-1 vs. Bowling Green while Ohio is 0-2). If both teams lose, there is no way to break the tie.

Here is a breakdown for the Mid-American Conference women's basketball tournament pairings IF THE TOURNAMENT STARTED TODAY ...

FIRST ROUND

Saturday, March 9

At Campus Sites

Game 1: No. 9 Western Michigan at No. 8 Eastern Michigan

Game 2: No. 10 Northern Illinois at No. 7 Buffalo

Game 3: No. 11 Kent State/Ohio at No. 6 Miami

Game 4: No. 12 Kent State/Ohio at No. 5 Bowling Green, 1 p.m.

SECOND ROUND

Wednesday, March 13

At Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland

Game 5: Winner Game 1 v. Winner Game 4, noon

Game 6: Winner Game 2 v. Winner Game 3, 2:30 p.m.

THIRD ROUND

Thursday, March 14

At Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland

Game 7: Winner Game 6 v. No. 4 Akron, noon

Game 8: Winner Game 5 v. No. 3 Central Michigan, 2:30 p.m.

SEMIFINALS

Friday, March 15

At Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland

Game 9: Winner Game 7 v. No. 1 Toledo, noon

Game 10: Winner Game 8 v. No. 2 Ball State, 2:30 p.m.

CHAMPIONSHIP

At Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland

Saturday, March 16th

Game 11: Semifinal winners, 1 p.m.

Finally, for Bowling Green fans: The Falcons in a nutshell. Here's what BG needs to have happen in the final set of regular-season games Wednesday ...

• Third seed: The only way the Falcons can finish third is if Bowling Green wins at Kent State while Akron loses at Buffalo and Central Michigan loses at Eastern Michigan. In that scenario the three way tie breaks BG's way thanks to a 2-1 record; Central Michigan is 1-1 while Akron is 1-2.
• Fourth seed: The only way the Falcons can finish fourth is if Bowling Green wins at KSU while Central Michigan loses at EMU and Akron WINS at UB. In that scenario BG and CMU are tied, and the Falcons win the tiebreaker thanks to their regular-season win over the Chippewas.
• Fifth seed: Every circumstance except the ones I have listed here.
• Sixth seed: The only way the Falcons finish sixth is if Bowling Green loses at Kent State while Miami wins at Ohio. In that scenario BG and Miami tie, and the RedHawks win the tiebreaker with two regular-season victories over the Falcons.

Transcripts from Ali Mann situation

After the Bowling Green women's basketball team defeated Buffalo on Thursday, head coach Jennifer Roos addressed the situation regarding assistant coach Ali Mann, who resigned on Feb. 22.

“The time line for this incident as it was laid out by our athletics director, Greg Christopher, is accurate. This is an incident that is a very sensitive and emotional issue, because it has affected the university, it has affected individuals within the program, ranging from players and parents to other students who work with our program and university personnel. The administration and I have communicated with – and are still in communication with – all of those groups.

“With that said, this has been an opportunity for everyone to reflect and learn and start to heal from this incident. I respect the process with which this was handled by everyone involved. Due to student privacy concerns, I can’t discuss anything that involves the students and their welfare. I will be very limited in regards to what I can discuss about other specifics due to the privacy rights of those involved. Any coach would say the exact same thing.”

What has been the team's chemistry since this incident?

“Winning helps,” Roos said. “We have goals on the horizon that we still attain. We want to attain those goals. We want the seniors to go out with a bang, and we want the underclassmen to continue to develop into leaders. We want to make some noise in the MAC Tournament.

“This is the first time in several years that we won’t go into the MAC Tournament as a top seed, and we weren’t picked to win the conference this year. We’re playing without a starter in Jasmine Matthews, and Alexis Rogers went down [in this game]. The bull’s eye isn’t on our back. We’re going into the Tournament playing as hard as we can, and we can’t ask any more of [the players].”

Have you talked to Mann since her resignation?

“I spoke with Ali a couple of times, and I’ve texted her a couple of times,” Roos said. “I’ve talked with her mom more.

How is Mann doing?

“I’m not in her shoes, so I can’t speak for her.”

How are the [members of the team] handling this emotional situation?

“It’s emotional whether its XYZ university or this university. In times of adversity a team can come together or fall apart, and we came together [Thursday]. I think everybody could see that.”

Click here to read the story in Thursday's paper about the situation. Click here to read the original story about Mann's resignation.

Related articles

Statement regarding BG assistant Ali Mann

MAC women's hoops tourney pairings as of March 1

Here's a how the Mid-American Conference standings would look, the remaining games for each team, and the best- and worst-case scenarios for each team (in other words, the best and worst finishes possible for each team and the realistic finishing place for every MAC squad (“Real” category). ...

Seed	Team	MAC	Games Remaining	Best	Real	Worst
No. 1	Toledo	13-1	EMU, BSU	1	1	2
No. 2	BSU	11-3	WMU, @UT	1	2-3	5
No. 3	CMU	10-4	@NIU, @EMU	2	2-3	6
No. 4	Akron	10-4	MU, @UB	2	3-4	6
No. 5	Miami	9-5	@UA, @OU	3	4-6	6
No. 6	BGSU	9-5	OU, @KSU	2	5	7
No. 7	Buffalo	7-7	KSU, UA	7	7	9
No. 8	EMU	6-8	@UT, CMU	7	8	9
No. 9	WMU	5-9	@BSU, NIU	8	9	9
No. 10	NIU	2-12	CMU, @WMU	10	10	12
No. 11	KSU	1-13	@UB, BG	10	11-12	12
No. 11	OU	1-13	@BG, MU	10	11-12	12

Here is how I broke the ties …

• Third seed: Central Michigan beat Akron head-to-head.
• 11th seed: I believe this will come down to a coin flip. The tie currently cannot be broken since the two teams split their season series against one another and did not win another game (at least to this point). One of them will have to win another game to claim the 11th seed without a coin flip.

A few other nuggets to consider when looking at tournament byes…

• Toledo almost certainly has clinched the top seed in the tournament. The Rockets can clinch the top seed with a win in either of their final two games or a loss by Ball State (the two play head-to-head at season’s end). The only way UT loses the top seed is if the Rockets lose their final two games and BSU wins their final two; in that scenario both would be 13-3 and they would be 1-1 head-to-head, but BSU would have better divisional record (9-1) than UT (7-3).
• Right now Ball State has the inside track on the second seed. If the Cardinals win out, they will have the second seed. If they tie with Akron they would lose a tiebreaker (head-to-head); currently BSU would win a tiebreaker with CMU (swept the Chippewas head-to-head). Ball State would lose a head-to-head tie with Bowling Green but win against Miami (both decided head-to-head).
• Central Michigan has the inside track on the third seed. If the Chippewas win their final two games, they will be the third seed because they hold the tiebreaker over Akron. CMU also would win a tiebreaker with Miami (head-to-head) but would lose a tiebreaker with Bowling Green (head-to-head).
• Akron has the inside track on the fourth seed. A win over Miami almost certainly would secure the fourth seed with the Zips, who would win a tiebreaker over Bowling Green (the two teams split during the season, but Akron has the better record in the division) and Miami (two head-to-head wins) as well as a three-way tie (3-1 record against those two teams). With a loss to Miami, Akron would still win the tiebreaker with Miami (they would have split head-to-head, have the same record in the division, but Akron beat Ball State while Miami lost to BSU) and BG (still division record).
• Bowling Green and Miami are the two most plausible choices for the fifth and sixth seeds. If the two finish with the same record, Miami wins the tiebreaker by sweeping the regular-season series. BG would win tiebreakers with Ball State and Central Michigan if it could manage to tie those two schools but would lose a tiebreaker with Akron (the Zips will have a better record in the division, and that matters for first-place teams). Obviously a Miami loss to Akron and a BG sweep would give BG fifth.
• Buffalo would clinch the seventh seed by winning either of its final two games. The Bulls have beaten both Eastern Michigan and Western Michigan head-to-head so it would win all tiebreakers in any scenario involving those teams. Buffalo cannot move any higher because it loses tiebreakers with the teams ahead of them.
• Eastern Michigan has the advantage over Western Michigan for the eighth seed. Eastern Michigan has swept the season series with the Broncos so it would win that head-to-head tiebreaker. The only way WMU can finish eighth is if it wins its final two games and EMU loses its final two.
• Northern Illinois is almost certainly the 10th seed. NIU wins tiebreakers with both Kent State and Ohio. To lose that seed, the Huskies must lose both of their games and have either KSU or OU win both of their final games.
• As mentioned above, at this point there is no way to break the Kent State/Ohio tie without flipping a coin.

Here is a breakdown for the Mid-American Conference women's basketball tournament pairings IF THE TOURNAMENT STARTED TODAY ...

FIRST ROUND

Saturday, March 9

At Campus Sites

Game 1: No. 9 Western Michigan at No. 8 Eastern Michigan

Game 2: No. 10 Northern Illinois at No. 7 Buffalo

Game 3: No. 11 Kent State/Ohio at No. 6 Bowling Green

Game 4: No. 12 Kent State/Ohio at No. 5 Miami

SECOND ROUND

Wednesday, March 13

At Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland

Game 5: Winner Game 1 v. Winner Game 4, noon

Game 6: Winner Game 2 v. Winner Game 3, 2:30 p.m.

THIRD ROUND

Thursday, March 14

At Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland

Game 7: Winner Game 6 v. No. 4 Akron, noon

Game 8: Winner Game 5 v. No. 3 Central Michigan, 2:30 p.m.

SEMIFINALS

Friday, March 15

At Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland

Game 9: Winner Game 7 v. No. 1 Toledo, noon

Game 10: Winner Game 8 v. No. 2 Ball State, 2:30 p.m.

CHAMPIONSHIP

At Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland

Saturday, March 16th

Game 11: Semifinal winners, 1 p.m.

Related articles

MAC Power Rankings - Feb. 28

MAC women's hoops tourney pairings as of Feb. 25

MAC Power Rankings – Feb. 28

Thank goodness there still are three games to sort out the mess of the Mid-American Conference women’s basketball standings.

Oh, some things are clear enough: Toledo and Central Michigan are the two best teams is one example. But after that, things aren’t nearly as clear.

For example, the next set of teams behind the Rockets and Chippewas? I’m pretty confident I have No. 3 right, but from there … The only thing I’m confident about is that I could be wrong. REALLY wrong.

And the bottom of the standings? Well, flip a coin – which is what the MAC may have to do to break that tie at the bottom.

Regardless, here are my updated Power Rankings for the MAC entering Thursday’s slate of games …

1. TOLEDO (24-2, 12-1 MAC) (LW #1): The Rockets won the game they had to win, claiming a victory on the road at Central Michigan last Sunday. UT has earned this spot based on its consistency all season long. In short, the Rockets lost to the only MAC team with enough talent to beat them – and avenged that loss with a victory – while beating every other team in the league. At this point, I don’t
expect any slip-ups on the way to the league’s regular-season title. RPI: 43.

2. CENTRAL MICHIGAN (16-10, 10-3 MAC) (LW #2): The teasing Chippewas came so close to knocking off Toledo despite playing without Jessica Green, who is lost for the season because of injury. All that kept them from beating the Rockets a second time was a complete melt-down at the offensive end in the final 10 minutes. It wasn’t that UT’s defense was so great, although it was good: CMU’s shot selection was horrible –- to be kind! -– and its star players didn’t play like starts in the final minutes. Still, this is the team no one wants to face in the MAC Tournament. RPI: 60.

3. AKRON (18-8, 9-4 MAC) (LW #3): The Zips have won six of their last seven, with only a loss at Bowling Green marring their recent resume. Although Akron does have one last regular-season test, it may have the easiest schedule to the finish since that rematch with Miami is at home, although UA’s remaining road game at Buffalo is not a guaranteed win. If the Zips win that game, the third seed -– and the East Division title -– is practically guaranteed. RPI: 135.

4. MIAMI (16-10, 8-5 MAC) (LW #6): The RedHawks swept two must-win games last week, winning at Buffalo and then knocking off Bowling Green at home. Those two wins lift Miami back into the discussion for a potential bye in the MAC Tournament. The biggest game on the schedule is the Sunday rematch with Akron on the Zips home floor. If the RedHawks can avenge their home loss to the Zips, Miami really will throw the seedings for the tournament into disarray. RPI: 157.

5. BOWLING GREEN (17-9, 8-5 MAC) (LW #4): The Falcons need help if they wish to claim a MAC Tournament bye, but it’s not impossible for them to receive it. However, the first step is to regain some positive momentum after a difficult loss at Miami Saturday. That must begin Thursday when BG hosts Buffalo at the Stroh Center, and continues through two expected wins (home against Ohio, at Kent State). Rooting tip for Falcons fans: Ball State losses are a good thing, and so are losses by Miami. RPI: 96.

6. BALL STATE (10-3, 13-13 MAC) (LW #5): Yes, I moved Ball State down a notch after a 2-0 week. But the wins were at home against two teams (EMU and NIU) the Cardinals should be expected to beat. I know BSU has win over Central Michigan and Miami, but the Cards finish with road games at CMU and at Toledo that could potentially cost them a top-four MAC finish – and MAC Tournament bye. Disagree with me? Fine, but the RPI numbers (compare BSU’s with the five teams I have ranked in front of the Cards) and a 3-10 record against a non-conference schedule that was non-descript agree with me. RPI: 202.

7. BUFFALO (9-17, 7-6) (LW #7): If the Cardinals hadn’t risen from the ashes so dramatically, we would be talking about Buffalo as the league’s most-improved team. The road ahead is tough –- UB still plays at Bowling Green and home against Akron –- but the pre-season predictions for this team were much more dire than the results, at least so far. Can the Bulls pull off one more piece of home magic and knock off the Zips? RPI: 261.

8. EASTERN MICHIGAN (7-19, 5-8 MAC) (LW #9): Just when I called out the Eagles for struggling to win home games, they claim a nice home win over Western Michigan last Saturday. Now comes the tricky part: Can EMU keep that momentum alive by winning at Northern Illinois? If not, it could be curtains for the Eagles, who finish against Toledo and Central Michigan, meaning EMU could enter
tournament play riding a three-game losing streak. RPI: 248.

9. WESTERN MICHIGAN (9-17, 5-8 MAC) (LW #8): The Broncos have an interesting finish to the schedule, starting with Thursday’s game against Toledo. WMU has been strong at home this season, but expecting a win there may be a little too much. So, too, must expectations be tempered for a road contest at Ball State, which should be a tough nut to crack. That means there’s a lot riding on the regular-season finale against Northern Illinois on March 6. RPI: 260.

10. NORTHERN ILLINOIS (7-19, 2-11 MAC) (LW #10): Yes, the Huskies have done little this season outside of their wins over Kent State and Ohio. But there’s a chance to turn that around in the final three games of the season, especially since NIU hosts Eastern Michigan on Thursday in the most realistically winnable remaining game on the schedule. Beating CMU at home is hard to imagine, although beating Western Michigan on the road is possible, albeit hard to imagine as well. RPI: 257.

11. KENT STATE (3-23, 1-12 MAC) (LW #11): I would suspect the Golden Flashes will be at least a 15-point underdog in each of their final three games. And having seen them in person twice –- in two blowout losses (at Bowling Green and at Toledo) –- I think that type of line is justified. Is KSU really better than Ohio? Flip a coin -– which is what the MAC will have to do to break the Flashes’ tie with the Bobcats for seeding purposes in the tournament. RPI: 337.

12. OHIO (6-19, 1-12 MAC) (LW #12): I would suspect the Bobcats will be at least a 15-point underdog in each of their final three games. And since those three contests are against the East Division’s top three teams -– Akron, Bowling Green and Miami -– I think that type of line is justified. Is OU really worse than Kent State? Flip a coin -– which is what the MAC will have to do to break the Bobcats’ tie with the Golden Flashes for seeding purposes in the tournament. RPI: 325.

Click here to view the MAC Tournament playoff pairings, standings (with tiebreakers) and much more entering Thursday's schedule of games.

MAC women's hoops tourney pairings as of Feb. 25

Here is a breakdown for the Mid-American Conference women's basketball tournament pairings IF THE TOURNAMENT STARTED TODAY ...

FIRST ROUND

Saturday, March 9

At Campus Sites

Game 1: No. 9 Western Michigan at No. 8 Eastern Michigan

Game 2: No. 10 Northern Illinois at No. 7 Buffalo

Game 3: No. 11 Kent State/Ohio at No. 6 Bowling Green

Game 4: No. 12 Kent State/Ohio at No. 5 Miami

SECOND ROUND

Wednesday, March 13

At Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland

Game 5: Winner Game 1 v. Winner Game 4, noon

Game 6: Winner Game 2 v. Winner Game 3, 2:30 p.m.

THIRD ROUND

Thursday, March 14

At Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland

Game 7: Winner Game 6 v. No. 4 Akron, noon

Game 8: Winner Game 5 v. No. 3 Central Michigan, 2:30 p.m.

SEMIFINALS

Friday, March 15

At Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland

Game 9: Winner Game 7 v. No. 1 Toledo, noon

Game 10: Winner Game 8 v. No. 2 Ball State, 2:30 p.m.

CHAMPIONSHIP

At Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland

Saturday, March 16th

Game 11: Semifinal winners, 1 p.m.

Here's a how the MAC standings would look, the remaining games for each team, and the best- and worst-case scenarios for each team (in other words, the best and worst finishes possible for each team) along with the most realistic place the team will finish (under "real"). ...

Seed	Team	MAC	Games Remaining	Best	Real	Worst
No. 1	Toledo	12-1	@WMU, EMU, BSU	1	1	3
No. 2	BSU	10-3	@CMU, WMU, @UT	1	2-4	6
No. 3	CMU	10-3	BSU, @NIU, @EMU	1	2-3	6
No. 4	Akron	9-4	OU, MU, @UB	2	3-6	7
No. 5	Miami	8-5	KSU, @UA, @OU	2	4-6	7
No. 6	BGSU	8-5	UB, OU, @KSU	2	4-5	8
No. 7	Buffalo	7-6	@BG, KSU, UA	4	7	9
No. 8	EMU	5-8	@NIU, @UT, CMU	7	8-9	10
No. 9	WMU	5-8	UT, @BSU, NIU	7	8-9	10
No. 10	NIU	2-11	EMU, CMU, @WMU	8	10	12
No. 11	KSU	1-12	@MU, @UB, BG	10	11-12	12
No. 11	OU	1-12	@UA, @BG, MU	10	11-12	12

Here is how I broke the ties …

• Second seed: Ball State beat Central Michigan in the two team’s first meeting, so they hold the advantage. But the two teams play one another next, so the two teams will not be tied after that game is played.
• Fifth seed: Miami won both meetings against Bowling Green and wins the tiebreaker.
• Eighth seed: Eastern Michigan won both meetings against Western Michigan and wins the tiebreaker.
• 11th seed: I believe this will come down to a coin flip. The tie cannot be broken since the two teams split their season series against one another and did not win another game (at least to this point). One of them will have to win another game to claim the 11th seed without a coin flip.

A few other nuggets to consider when looking at tournament byes…

• Toledo almost certainly has clinched the top seed in the tournament. With its win at Central Michigan, Toledo holds a two-game lead over CMU and Ball State with three games to play. The Rockets have beaten all three remaining teams on their schedule, and two of the three games are at home.
• Thursday’s game between Ball State and Central Michigan (at CMU) is huge for both teams: The winner will hold a game advantage in the standings over the loser – as well as probably Akron – for the second bye into the semifinals of the tournament. If Ball State loses, it would fall to the fourth seed because of a loss to Akron; CMU would be the third seed because it beat Akron.
• Sunday’s game between Akron and Miami (at Akron) also has major implications in the standings. As it stands now the Zips hold the tiebreaker because of a win at Miami. A win over the RedHawks would virtually assure Akron one of the four byes. Miami would really make things interesting with a win, particularly if there was a three-way tie with Akron and BG – Miami would win that tiebreaker and take the fourth seed. What’s more, in that scenario Akron probably would tumble to sixth seed (loses tiebreaker with BG). But if Miami loses, BG probably would become the fifth seed and Miami the sixth.

Statement regarding BG assistant Ali Mann

Ali Mann resigned as Bowling Green women's basketball assistant coach on Friday, one day before the Falcons faced Miami in Oxford, Ohio.

Click here to read about the situation.

Before Saturday's contest BG coach Jennifer Roos was asked in the radio pre-game show how she, her staff and her team would adjust to Mann's resignation.

"You are never ready for the unexpected, but you have to be prepared," Roos said. "I have the utmost confidence in Jesse Fleming, Emily London and Monique Rosati. We will be prepared, and we know what we have to do.

"Ali has gone home for personal reasons. We will continue to play hard, and I know the team will come together, and so will the coaching staff."

Roos was not asked about any of the circumstances surrounding Mann's resignation.

MAC women's hoops tourney pairings as of Feb. 21

Here is a breakdown for the Mid-American Conference women's basketball tournament pairings IF THE TOURNAMENT STARTED TODAY ...

FIRST ROUND

Saturday, March 9

At Campus Sites

Game 1: No. 9 Eastern Michigan at No. 8 Western Michigan

Game 2: No. 10 Northern Illinois at No. 7 Buffalo

Game 3: No. 11 Kent State/Ohio at No. 6 Miami

Game 4: No. 12 Kent State/Ohio at No. 5 Akron

SECOND ROUND

Wednesday, March 13

At Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland

Game 5: Winner Game 1 v. Winner Game 4, noon

Game 6: Winner Game 2 v. Winner Game 3, 2:30 p.m.

THIRD ROUND

Thursday, March 14

At Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland

Game 7: Winner Game 6 v. No. 4 Bowling Green, noon

Game 8: Winner Game 5 v. No. 3 Ball State, 2:30 p.m.

SEMIFINALS

Friday, March 15

At Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland

Game 9: Winner Game 7 v. No. 1 Toledo, noon

Game 10: Winner Game 8 v. No. 2 Central Michigan, 2:30 p.m.

CHAMPIONSHIP

At Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland

Saturday, March 16th

Game 11: Semifinal winners, 1 p.m.

Here's a how the MAC standings would look, the remaining games for each team, and the best- and worst-case scenarios for each team (in other words, the best and worst finishes possible for each team). ...

Seed	Team	MAC	Games Remaining	Best	Worst
No. 1	Toledo	11-1	@CMU, @WMU, EMU, BSU	1	5
No. 2	CMU	10-2	UT, BSU, @NIU, @EMU	1	6
No. 3	BSU	9-3	NIU, @CMU, WMU, @UT	1	8
No. 4	BGSU	8-4	@MU, UB, OU, @KSU	1	8
No. 5	Akron	8-4	@KSU, OU, MU, @UB	1	8
No. 6	Miami	7-5	BG, KSU, @UA, @OU	2	9
No. 7	Buffalo	6-6	@OU, @BG, KSU, UA	3	9
No. 8	WMU	5-7	@EMU, UT, @BSU, NIU	3	11
No. 9	EMU	4-8	WMU, @NIU, @UT, CMU	6	12
No. 10	NIU	2-10	@BSU, EMU, CMU, @WMU	8	12
No. 11	KSU	1-11	UA, @MU, @UB, BG	9	12
No. 11	OU	1-11	UB, @UA, @BG, MU	9	12

Here is how I broke the ties …

• 4th seed: Bowling Green and Akron are 1-1 against one another. The second tiebreaker is record against opponents going down the conference standings, and BG has beaten Central Michigan while Akron lost to the Chippewas.
• 11th seed: I believe this will come down to a coin flip. The tie cannot be broken since the two teams split their season series against one another and did not win another game (at least to this point). One of them will have to win another game to claim the 11th seed without a coin flip.

A few other nuggets to consider when looking at tournament byes…

• Sunday’s game between Toledo and Central Michigan almost certainly will determine the MAC Tournament’s top seed. With a win, Toledo would hold a two-game lead over the Chippewas with three games to play, and all but officially would be the tournament’s top seed. But if CMU wins, it would become the top seed in the tournament (assuming the two teams are tied for the best record) since it will have swept the Rockets this season.
• Saturday’s game between Bowling Green and Miami is huge for both teams. If the Falcons win, they almost certainly will have a bye into the semifinals since they would hold head-to-head tiebreakers against the RedHawks, Akron, Ball State and Central Michigan –- in short, nearly every possible team that they might tie. But Miami controls its own destiny thanks to games with both BG and Akron; if MU wins both of those games, the RedHawks would find themselves potentially tied with both schools. In that scenario Miami would win a three-way tie (3-1 record against BG & UA); Miami probably will lose a head-to-head tie with Akron because the RedHawks lost to Ball State but would win a head-to-head tie with BG by sweeping the season series.
• Ball State’s position in the rankings remains tenuous. As it stands now the Cardinals hold the third seed in the tournament. But with road games at Central Michigan and at Toledo, it’s not impossible to envision BSU finishing 9-5. And the Cards don’t win many tiebreakers -– in that scenario Ball State would lose a tiebreaker to CMU (0-2), Akron (lost) and Bowling Green (lost) but would beat Miami (won). If BSU ties with multiple teams, their chances also are grim (trust me on this one).
• Theoretically Buffalo could finish as high as third. Realistically …  The Bulls can’t finish in a tie with Ball State because they would lose the tiebreaker (lost head-to-head). The Bulls would lose a tiebreaker with Akron (because UA beat Ball State and UB did not) and with Bowling Green (BG beat both BSU and CMU, while UB did not). Buffalo’s tiebreakers with Miami haven’t been played out (games versus UA and BG for both); as things sit now, Miami would win the tiebreaker thanks to its win over BG. In short, for Buffalo to be seeded higher than the teams ahead of them in the standings, the Bulls must have a better record (they lose most of the tiebreakers).
• Theoretically Western Michigan could finish as high as third. Realistically …  The Broncos need to not only win their remaining games, they need lots of losses by the teams in front of them in the standings. That means BSU must go 0-4; Akron must lose to both Ohio and Kent State, among other losses; BG must lose to either Ohio or Kent State, plus lose other games … you see my point. WMU does hold tiebreakers over Akron and Bowling Green with head-to-head wins; if the Broncos rise to Ball State’s level WMU would hold the tiebreaker (with a win over Toledo).

Click here to take a look at this week’s MAC Power Rankings.