MAC women's hoops tourney pairings as of Feb. 25

Here is a breakdown for the Mid-American Conference women's basketball tournament pairings IF THE TOURNAMENT STARTED TODAY ...

FIRST ROUND

Saturday, March 9

At Campus Sites

Game 1: No. 9 Western Michigan at No. 8 Eastern Michigan

Game 2: No. 10 Northern Illinois at No. 7 Buffalo

Game 3: No. 11 Kent State/Ohio at No. 6 Bowling Green

Game 4: No. 12 Kent State/Ohio at No. 5 Miami

SECOND ROUND

Wednesday, March 13

At Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland

Game 5: Winner Game 1 v. Winner Game 4, noon

Game 6: Winner Game 2 v. Winner Game 3, 2:30 p.m.

THIRD ROUND

Thursday, March 14

At Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland

Game 7: Winner Game 6 v. No. 4 Akron, noon

Game 8: Winner Game 5 v. No. 3 Central Michigan, 2:30 p.m.

SEMIFINALS

Friday, March 15

At Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland

Game 9: Winner Game 7 v. No. 1 Toledo, noon

Game 10: Winner Game 8 v. No. 2 Ball State, 2:30 p.m.

CHAMPIONSHIP

At Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland

Saturday, March 16th

Game 11: Semifinal winners, 1 p.m.

Here's a how the MAC standings would look, the remaining games for each team, and the best- and worst-case scenarios for each team (in other words, the best and worst finishes possible for each team) along with the most realistic place the team will finish (under "real"). ...

Seed	Team	MAC	Games Remaining	Best	Real	Worst
No. 1	Toledo	12-1	@WMU, EMU, BSU	1	1	3
No. 2	BSU	10-3	@CMU, WMU, @UT	1	2-4	6
No. 3	CMU	10-3	BSU, @NIU, @EMU	1	2-3	6
No. 4	Akron	9-4	OU, MU, @UB	2	3-6	7
No. 5	Miami	8-5	KSU, @UA, @OU	2	4-6	7
No. 6	BGSU	8-5	UB, OU, @KSU	2	4-5	8
No. 7	Buffalo	7-6	@BG, KSU, UA	4	7	9
No. 8	EMU	5-8	@NIU, @UT, CMU	7	8-9	10
No. 9	WMU	5-8	UT, @BSU, NIU	7	8-9	10
No. 10	NIU	2-11	EMU, CMU, @WMU	8	10	12
No. 11	KSU	1-12	@MU, @UB, BG	10	11-12	12
No. 11	OU	1-12	@UA, @BG, MU	10	11-12	12

Here is how I broke the ties …

• Second seed: Ball State beat Central Michigan in the two team’s first meeting, so they hold the advantage. But the two teams play one another next, so the two teams will not be tied after that game is played.
• Fifth seed: Miami won both meetings against Bowling Green and wins the tiebreaker.
• Eighth seed: Eastern Michigan won both meetings against Western Michigan and wins the tiebreaker.
• 11th seed: I believe this will come down to a coin flip. The tie cannot be broken since the two teams split their season series against one another and did not win another game (at least to this point). One of them will have to win another game to claim the 11th seed without a coin flip.

A few other nuggets to consider when looking at tournament byes…

• Toledo almost certainly has clinched the top seed in the tournament. With its win at Central Michigan, Toledo holds a two-game lead over CMU and Ball State with three games to play. The Rockets have beaten all three remaining teams on their schedule, and two of the three games are at home.
• Thursday’s game between Ball State and Central Michigan (at CMU) is huge for both teams: The winner will hold a game advantage in the standings over the loser – as well as probably Akron – for the second bye into the semifinals of the tournament. If Ball State loses, it would fall to the fourth seed because of a loss to Akron; CMU would be the third seed because it beat Akron.
• Sunday’s game between Akron and Miami (at Akron) also has major implications in the standings. As it stands now the Zips hold the tiebreaker because of a win at Miami. A win over the RedHawks would virtually assure Akron one of the four byes. Miami would really make things interesting with a win, particularly if there was a three-way tie with Akron and BG – Miami would win that tiebreaker and take the fourth seed. What’s more, in that scenario Akron probably would tumble to sixth seed (loses tiebreaker with BG). But if Miami loses, BG probably would become the fifth seed and Miami the sixth.

Comments

[Jane Allison]

Could not BG finish 4th with this senario? Ball State loses to UT and Central Michigan. Bg wins last 3. Both finish 11-5. Miami loses to Akron and finishes 10-6
BG has tiebreaker over Ball State. Lets add this. Akron loses to Buffalo the last day of season. Finishes 11-5. Who gets the byes if BG/Ball State/Akron tie at 11-5.

[BG Fan]

I am not sure, but I believe there is some sort of division-only tiebreaker which would go to Akron if BGSU and Akron tied in the final standings.

The teams split their two meetings, but BGSU is 4-3 right now against East Division teams. At best, BG could be 7-3 against the East Division. Akron is 6-1 against the East, so if the teams were to end in a tie, Akron would definitely hold the better division record. I am pretty sure that Akron wins a two-team tie with BGSU no matter what else happens in the last 3 games.

If BG/Ball State/Akron tie, I think it goes Akron, BG, Ball State in that order. The head to head would be Akron 2-1, BGSU 2-1, Ball State 0-2. So Ball State would be dropped below BG and Akron in the tiebreaker, and it would then go back to the two-team tiebreaker between BG and Akron, which Akron would win.

BG could definitely finish as high as 4th, but then you are asking Miami and Akron to lose to teams like Ohio and Kent State.

[John_Wagner]

Jane: Just making sure I have your question framed properly ... You want to know how to break a three-way tie between Ball State, Akron and Bowling Green if all three are 11-5?

In the scenario you paint, you have Miami losing to Akron (so they can't finish 11-5, much to BG's benefit). CMU also could finish 11-5 (but that would help BG, too).

BREAK THE TIE YOU SUGGEST: Akron and BG both beat BSU, so Ball State would be at the bottom of that tiebreaker. From there it's head-to-head (split), then record going down the standings, which BG would win thanks to its victory over CMU.

[John_Wagner]

BG Fan: The tiebreaker you refer to deals only with the Division title.

Here are the tiebreakers, with thanks to Jeremy Guy from the MAC Office for providing them ...

1. Between TWO teams:

A. Head-to-head competition

B. Division Record (10 games)^

C. Winning percentage* vs. ranked conference teams (top to bottom, regardless of division, vs. common opponents regardless of the number of times played)

D. Coin flip

^ - For the purpose of determining the Division champion only

* - Winning percentage is used instead of record because of situations where teams do not play each other the same number of times. Therefore, a team that is 1-0 (1.000) would win the tiebreaker over a team that is 2-1 (.667).

[John_Wagner]

BG Fan: I owe you an apology ... My understanding was that "B" was skipped when it came to seeding, since it only involved the division title.

I have been told that it is used ... which I guess makes since in this situation, since if Akron and BG tied, it probably would be for the division title. And yes, you are correct that Akron has the better division record, so they win the tiebreaker.

So again, I apologize. But I will say this: It makes no sense to use it in this situation, then not use it in non-division champ tiebreakers. Either it's a tiebreaker or it's not a tiebreaker.