FIRST ROUND
Saturday, March 9
At Campus Sites
Game 1: No. 9 Eastern Michigan at No. 8 Western Michigan
Game 2: No. 10 Northern Illinois at No. 7 Buffalo
Game 3: No. 11 Kent State/Ohio at No. 6 Miami
Game 4: No. 12 Kent State/Ohio at No. 5 Akron
SECOND ROUND
Wednesday, March 13
At Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland
Game 5: Winner Game 1 v. Winner Game 4, noon
Game 6: Winner Game 2 v. Winner Game 3, 2:30 p.m.
THIRD ROUND
Thursday, March 14
At Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland
Game 7: Winner Game 6 v. No. 4 Bowling Green, noon
Game 8: Winner Game 5 v. No. 3 Ball State, 2:30 p.m.
SEMIFINALS
Friday, March 15
At Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland
Game 9: Winner Game 7 v. No. 1 Toledo, noon
Game 10: Winner Game 8 v. No. 2 Central Michigan, 2:30 p.m.
CHAMPIONSHIP
At Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland
Saturday, March 16th
Game 11: Semifinal winners, 1 p.m.
Here's a how the MAC standings would look, the remaining games for each team, and the best- and worst-case scenarios for each team (in other words, the best and worst finishes possible for each team). ...
|
Seed |
Team |
MAC |
Games Remaining |
Best |
Worst |
|
No. 1 |
Toledo |
11-1 |
@CMU, @WMU, EMU, BSU |
1 |
5 |
|
No. 2 |
CMU |
10-2 |
UT, BSU, @NIU, @EMU |
1 |
6 |
|
No. 3 |
BSU |
9-3 |
NIU, @CMU, WMU, @UT |
1 |
8 |
|
No. 4 |
BGSU |
8-4 |
@MU, UB, OU, @KSU |
1 |
8 |
|
No. 5 |
Akron |
8-4 |
@KSU, OU, MU, @UB |
1 |
8 |
|
No. 6 |
Miami |
7-5 |
BG, KSU, @UA, @OU |
2 |
9 |
|
No. 7 |
Buffalo |
6-6 |
@OU, @BG, KSU, UA |
3 |
9 |
|
No. 8 |
WMU |
5-7 |
@EMU, UT, @BSU, NIU |
3 |
11 |
|
No. 9 |
EMU |
4-8 |
WMU, @NIU, @UT, CMU |
6 |
12 |
|
No. 10 |
NIU |
2-10 |
@BSU, EMU, CMU, @WMU |
8 |
12 |
|
No. 11 |
KSU |
1-11 |
UA, @MU, @UB, BG |
9 |
12 |
|
No. 11 |
OU |
1-11 |
UB, @UA, @BG, MU |
9 |
12 |
Here is how I broke the ties …
- 4th seed: Bowling Green and Akron are 1-1 against one another. The second tiebreaker is record against opponents going down the conference standings, and BG has beaten Central Michigan while Akron lost to the Chippewas.
- 11th seed: I believe this will come down to a coin flip. The tie cannot be broken since the two teams split their season series against one another and did not win another game (at least to this point). One of them will have to win another game to claim the 11th seed without a coin flip.
A few other nuggets to consider when looking at tournament byes…
- Sunday’s game between Toledo and Central Michigan almost certainly will determine the MAC Tournament’s top seed. With a win, Toledo would hold a two-game lead over the Chippewas with three games to play, and all but officially would be the tournament’s top seed. But if CMU wins, it would become the top seed in the tournament (assuming the two teams are tied for the best record) since it will have swept the Rockets this season.
- Saturday’s game between Bowling Green and Miami is huge for both teams. If the Falcons win, they almost certainly will have a bye into the semifinals since they would hold head-to-head tiebreakers against the RedHawks, Akron, Ball State and Central Michigan –- in short, nearly every possible team that they might tie. But Miami controls its own destiny thanks to games with both BG and Akron; if MU wins both of those games, the RedHawks would find themselves potentially tied with both schools. In that scenario Miami would win a three-way tie (3-1 record against BG & UA); Miami probably will lose a head-to-head tie with Akron because the RedHawks lost to Ball State but would win a head-to-head tie with BG by sweeping the season series.
- Ball State’s position in the rankings remains tenuous. As it stands now the Cardinals hold the third seed in the tournament. But with road games at Central Michigan and at Toledo, it’s not impossible to envision BSU finishing 9-5. And the Cards don’t win many tiebreakers -– in that scenario Ball State would lose a tiebreaker to CMU (0-2), Akron (lost) and Bowling Green (lost) but would beat Miami (won). If BSU ties with multiple teams, their chances also are grim (trust me on this one).
- Theoretically Buffalo could finish as high as third. Realistically … The Bulls can’t finish in a tie with Ball State because they would lose the tiebreaker (lost head-to-head). The Bulls would lose a tiebreaker with Akron (because UA beat Ball State and UB did not) and with Bowling Green (BG beat both BSU and CMU, while UB did not). Buffalo’s tiebreakers with Miami haven’t been played out (games versus UA and BG for both); as things sit now, Miami would win the tiebreaker thanks to its win over BG. In short, for Buffalo to be seeded higher than the teams ahead of them in the standings, the Bulls must have a better record (they lose most of the tiebreakers).
- Theoretically Western Michigan could finish as high as third. Realistically … The Broncos need to not only win their remaining games, they need lots of losses by the teams in front of them in the standings. That means BSU must go 0-4; Akron must lose to both Ohio and Kent State, among other losses; BG must lose to either Ohio or Kent State, plus lose other games … you see my point. WMU does hold tiebreakers over Akron and Bowling Green with head-to-head wins; if the Broncos rise to Ball State’s level WMU would hold the tiebreaker (with a win over Toledo).
Click here to take a look at this week’s MAC Power Rankings.
Comments