Even though there has been only one set of games since I posted last week’s
rankings, I’ve done a little scrambling for this week's rankings.
Well, that’s not completely true: I did post last week’s rankings before
Miami defeated Bowling Green on the Falcons home court, so that resulted in an
adjustment. But I did do some rearranging of the teams in the middle of the
pack, too, and that’s based on only one result.
I know what you’re thinking: How can one set of results change what you
think about the order of teams in the MAC? Simply put, I’m just not sure we
know exactly what that order is, really -- especially of the teams in the middle of the standings. Results around the league haven’t fit
together in a nice daisy chain of this-team-beat-that-team-and-etc., so there’s
still a little hypothesizing going on.
Not a good enough answer? Then consider this: the RPI rankings are having
trouble digesting MAC results, too. How else can you explain 5-1 Ball State
having a LOWER ranking in the RPI than 2-4 Eastern Michigan? Or explain that 2-4
Western Michigan, which just lost by 19 points to Buffalo, has an RPI ranking
one point HIGHER than the Bulls?
Undaunted, here is our look at how the 12 league teams shape up heading into Wednesday’s games. …
1. CENTRAL
MICHIGAN (12-7, 6-0 MAC) (LW #1): In all that uncertainty surrounding
MAC women’s basketball, the Chippewas are an island of certainty. Not only is
CMU 6-0, the Chips are beating league opponents by an average of 21 points per
game -– a number that would be higher without a nine-point win at Toledo. Could
Bowling Green give them a scare at the Stroh on Sunday? Can Miami claim a win over
CMU at Millett on Feb. 16? If not, the only thing that would keep Central
Michigan from an undefeated league season is the rematch with the Rockets on
Feb. 24. RPI: 50.
2. TOLEDO (17-2,
5-1 MAC) (LW #2): The Rockets’ narrow two-point win at Northern
Illinois raises some eyebrows -– UT trailed nearly all the way before finding a
way to win at the end. Still, Toledo did win when it didn’t play its best, and
the team deserves some credit for that. This week should be a cake walk for the
Rockets, who host winless Ohio and struggling Western Michigan at Savage. That
should give Toledo time to get things righted before a tough patch next week,
which includes road games against two 5-1 teams in Miami and Ball State. RPI:
40.
3. MIAMI
(13-6, 5-1 MAC) (LW #4): The RedHawks claimed a huge victory on
Thursday with its win over Bowling Green. Not only does that win give Miami a
leg up in the East Division race, but it snaps the team’s seven-game losing
streak over the Falcons -– a stretch that was creating thoughts of a “Miami
whammy.” This week should be easy, with a home game at Buffalo and a contest at
Northern Illinois, but the RedHawks should be wary of not looking past those
teams to the stretch of three tough home games (Toledo, Akron and Central
Michigan) that follow. RPI: 116.
4. BOWLING
GREEN (13-6, 4-2 MAC) (LW #3): The
Falcons suffered a tough loss at home to Miami, but BG responded with a solid
win at Eastern Michigan Sunday. And that was important, because things will get
really tough for BG this week as the Falcons play at Akron and then host
Central Michigan. If BG wants to earn a bye in the MAC Tournament, winning at
least one of those games -– and keeping pace with teams ahead of the Falcons in
the standings, especially Miami and Ball State -– is a must. RPI:
95.
5. AKRON
(12-7, 3-3 MAC) (LW #5): The Zips are on a three-game losing streak,
which seems bad until you consider two of the losses were to Toledo and Central
Michigan. But if Akron wants to stay in contact with the upper echelon of the
league, a win at home over Bowling Green Thursday is a must. In fact, now is the time
for the Zips to get on a roll since they host three straight home games in
Bowling Green, Buffalo and Eastern Michigan. If Akron didn’t have that ugly
loss at Western Michigan on its resume, the Zips could afford a 2-1 homestand.
But with that loss ... RPI: 166.
6.
BALL STATE (5-1, 8-11 MAC) (LW #6): What to make of the Cardinals, who just keep winning? Last week saw
them claim a nifty road win at Buffalo, then wallop Ohio at home. And BSU does
have that impressive win over Miami in their holster. Things may get a little
tougher this week, since the Cards are on the road twice (at Western Michigan
and at Eastern Michigan). Things get a LOT tougher next week even though Ball
State is at home -– Central Michigan and Toledo provide the opposition. The
Cards still have two games against both CMU and UT, so winning this week is a
must if BSU wants to move into the MAC’s upper division. RPI:
250.
7.
BUFFALO (6-13, 4-2) (LW #8): The Bulls and Ball State are the two
biggest surprises this season, and Buffalo wasted a golden opportunity to take
top billing by losing to the Cards (at home) last week. But the pressure is
about ratchet up at least another notch as UB is on the road twice this week –-
at Miami and at Akron, two of the teams Buffalo is fighting for the top spot in
the East. That’s the front end of a four-game span that includes a home game
against Bowling Green and a road trip to Central Michigan. A 2-2 mark for the
Bulls in that stretch would be impressive. RPI: 279.
8. EASTERN
MICHIGAN (4-15, 2-4 MAC) (LW #9): The Eagles claimed another win by
clobbering Kent State, but EMU wasn’t able to claim a home win over Bowling
Green on Sunday. The good news is that the Eagles’ game against BG is the first
of five home games in a six-game stretch. What’s more, that stretch includes
some winnable games against Northern Illinois, Ohio and Buffalo as well as a
nice challenge in Ball State. I don’t think a 4-1 record in the remaining games of that stretch
is asking too much, and 3-2 is almost imperative. RPI: 213.
9. WESTERN
MICHIGAN (6-13, 2-4 MAC) (LW #7): The Broncos wasted a lot of positive
momentum by losing at Buffalo Saturday. It wasn’t the loss that stung as much
as the 19-point margin of the defeat that was a negative. And speaking of a
negative, this week the schedule includes games against Ball State and Toledo,
with a contest against Bowling Green looming on the horizon. Winning at Kent
State Feb. 7 is quickly becoming a must-do, and trying to steal another win in
this four-game stretch would really give WMU that positive momentum back. RPI:
278.
10.
NORTHERN ILLINOIS (5-14, 0-6 MAC) (LW #10): The Huskies had an
interesting 0-2 week, losing at home to Western Michigan (bad), then nearly
beating Toledo at home (good). So which of those two games is the better
barometer of this team? Despite all the evidence to the contrary, I’m going to
say the close loss to the Rockets. We certainly will find out soon enough as
NIU plays winnable games in the coming weeks at Eastern Michigan, at Ohio and
at Kent State. RPI: 282.
11. OHIO
(5-13, 0-6 MAC) (LW #11): Yes, the schedule-maker gets some of the
blame for the slow start as the Bobcats played Miami, Bowling Green and Central
Michigan in three of its first four games, and the other two contests were road
games (at Buffalo and at Ball State). That explains OU getting outscored by an
average of 28.7 points per game in MAC contests -– at least to a degree. It doesn’t
fully explain losing by 37 points at Buffalo and losing by 29 at Ball State.
After facing Toledo (on the road, of course) on Thursday, things will soften
for the Bobcats as they host Kent State and Northern Illinois. At least one win
in those two games is a must. RPI: 296.
12. KENT
STATE (2-17, 0-6 MAC) (LW #12): The most painful part of this 0-6
start is that the Golden Flashes probably haven’t hit rock-bottom yet. KSU is
at Central Michigan (hoo boy) Thursday, and still has a game at Toledo on the
horizon. The good news is that potential first league wins are on the horizon
as the Flashes play at Ohio Sunday, then host Western Michigan and Northern
Illinois – with the home game against Ohio not too far on the horizon. RPI: 339.