We’re now in the second “half” of the 2012 season, so the time for contenders and pretenders to be “unmasked” is here, if it hasn’t happened already. There still is time for teams to make a late charge –- both going up or down in the standings is possible, mind you -– but teams are starting to reveal their stripes.
As a result, I’ve made some changes in the rankings, especially in the upper echelon. The teams at the bottom of the rankings will play one another enough to sort things out, but at the top? That's why I get paid the big bucks, isn't it?
Here is a look at the league’s 13 teams, presented in the order I would rank them at this point in the season. …
1.
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
(6-1, 3-0) (LW #3): Last week I wrote that “style” mattered,
especially when you are splitting hairs between the top teams in the league.
Well, the Huskies have been the most “stylish” team in the MAC
in recent weeks, and they really were stylin’ in a 45-3 home romp over Buffalo.
But the game that has stuck in my mind was the 12-point victory at Ball
State … it reinforced the notion
that this team is wearing down opponents and pulling away late, even against
good teams. And the not-so-good teams? NIU has buried them, something the two
other top contenders haven’t been doing.
2. OHIO
(7-0, 3-0) (LW #2): Congrats to the Bobcat on earning a spot in the
Top 25 for the first time in 40 years. Congrats especially on putting together
that fine record despite a rash of injuries that few MAC
teams could handle. But again, when it comes to style … Ohio
has been lacking. For the third week in a row the Bobcats won a relatively
narrow victory against an inferior foe. Here’s a stat to chew on: The past
three weeks have seen OU claim single-digit victories against three teams that
have combined for two wins this season – and both of those wins were against FCS
teams. Notice I’ve never said this team won’t go 12-0 or won’t win the MAC
… but to this point the Bobcats haven’t dominated in the way you might expect.
3. TOLEDO
(6-1, 4-0) (LW #1): I gave the Rockets a pass when they struggled to
beat Central Michigan. But I called last Saturday’s game
against Eastern Michigan a “bye week,” and instead it
was a full-fledged challenge, especially for the UT defense, before the Rockets
knocked off a winless team. Again, style
points: The Eagles were a team Toledo
should have dominated and didn’t, in the same way the Chippewas the week before
were a team the Rockets should have dominated. A lackluster performance at home
against Cincinnati week isn’t going
to get it done, but I warn fans of Northern Illinois and
Ohio: If the Rockets pull off the
upset, well, style matters.
4. KENT
STATE (5-1, 3-0) (LW #5): I really like the way the Golden Flashes
scored a convincing road victory over an Army team that nearly beat Northern
Illinois in mid-September. At this point Dri
Archer has become a force of nature returning kickoffs and running the
ball, while this defense clearly is one of the best in the MAC.
They will be challenged again in the next few weeks, hosting Western
Michigan this Saturday before hitting the road to take on Rutgers
the following week. I am strongly tempted to make the MAC’s
“Top Three” a quartet; if KSU wins the next
two weeks, it’s going to happen.
5.
BALL STATE (4-3, 2-2) (LW #6): The
Cardinals found a way to win a must-win game by beating Western Michigan in a
contest that saw both teams make amazing late pushes to force overtime. Now BSU
hits the road for three weeks in a row, starting with another must-win game at Central Michigan. The two losses this team has suffered in league play probably will cost the Cards a shot at
the West Division title, but a potential bowl bid likely hangs in the balance
of a three-game stretch that includes games at Army, at Toledo and at home
against Ohio. Ball State can get to six wins even if it loses all three of
those contests, but without a signature win –- and any of those three games
would be a signature win –- the Cards may be too unappealing to earn a bowl bid.
6. WESTERN
MICHIGAN (3-4, 1-2) (LW #4): Last week Ball State was the best team
with a 1-2 MAC record, and this week the
Broncos earn that honor after a heartbreaking overtime loss at Ball State. WMU
needs to regroup quickly, as it will face another tough challenge at Kent
State Saturday, following by a
critical contest at home against Northern Illinois the
following week. If the Broncos lose those two games, they still could win their
final three (at Central Michigan, at Buffalo
and home against Eastern Michigan) and reach bowl
eligibility with six victories. But, like the Cardinals, WMU would lack a
signature win that would make it a more enticing team for potential bowl suitors.
7.
BOWLING GREEN (4-3, 2-1) (LW #8): The Falcons seem to have things
rolling thanks to a convincing win over Miami, a victory made even tougher
since BG was without one of its top defenders in senior LB Dwayne Woods. But Bowling Green is about to enter the “trap”
portion of the schedule, playing at UMass this Saturday and home against
Eastern Michigan the next. Seems like two sure victories, right? Well,
overlooking either of those two teams would be disastrous if the Falcons still
wish to win the East, since their two games after that feature stout tests at Ohio
and at home against Kent State.
8. MIAMI
(3-4, 2-1) (LW #7): The RedHawks suffered a disappointing loss at Bowling Green Saturday, failing to generate much offense and giving up the final 20 points of the game. Miami will benefit from a bye this week as it prepares for a contest at home against Ohio the following Saturday. If this team retains its aspirations for a division title and a bowl bid, now is the time to get things turned around and heading in the right direction. Looming on the horizon are other tough contests besides the game against the Bobcats, most notably matchups against Ball State and Kent State.
9.
BUFFALO (1-5, 0-3) (LW #9): The Bulls had been playing well in recent
weeks, but they weren’t able to put up much of a fight in suffering a lopsided
loss at Northern Illinois last week. Yes, they miss
running back Brandon Oliver, and
yes, the schedule has been a meat-grinder. I will leave them in this spot based
on strong efforts against UConn and Ohio
in the past –- and the fact that none of the teams below the Bulls have proven
to be worthy of surpassing them, although Akron
is close. But UB needs to return to that effort level from earlier in the
season as it hits a stretch of home games against tough opponents in Pittsburgh,
Toledo, Miami
and Western Michigan.
10. AKRON
(1-6, 0-3) (LW #11): The Zips don’t have a record significantly
different than last season, but they obviously are significantly better. Their
string of solid efforts that made better opponents squirm continued for the
fourth week in a row when Akron
went to Ohio,
and gave the Bobcats a tussle before falling. Things don’t get any easier for
UA this week as the Zips host Northern Illinois, but
there are still some winnable games on the schedule if this team continues to
give effort at this level.
11. CENTRAL
MICHIGAN (2-4, 0-2) (LW #10): The
Chippewas continued to struggle with turnovers and mistakes in a home loss to
Navy on national TV Friday. Yes, this group is young at a lot of positions, but
it just doesn’t seem to be close to finding a solution to its problems. CMU has
three straight home games on the schedule, starting this Saturday against a Ball
State team that should provide a
good test, followed by Akron and Western
Michigan. Things get easier at the end of the season … but will
anyone in Mt. Pleasant
care at that point?
12. EASTERN
MICHIGAN (0-6, 0-3) (LW #12): Listen, I’m
done making predictions about this team. I thought the Eagles would be
improved, and instead they have struggled. I thought EMU would give Kent
State a battle, and instead it
rolled over and lost at home by 27 points. So I thought Toledo
would roll them, and instead Eastern Michigan did the
rolling, scoring 47 points –- more than it has in any TWO other games combined this
season. Was that performance real or a mirage? I have a feeling we’ll get an
answer this Saturday when the Eagles host Army.
13. MASSACHUSETTS
(0-6, 0-3) (LW #13): The Minutemen have had a week to lick their
wounds after getting pounded at Western Michigan. But UMass
had looked better in the previous weeks, giving Miami
and Ohio fits before losing. Will
the combination of a difficult loss, an extra week to prepare and a home game help
UMass claim that elusive first victory since joining the FBS ranks when Bowling
Green comes to town Saturday?
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