There's nothing here that is cast in granite, but these are things that I THINK I know regarding seeding for the MAC Tournament. Thanks to Jeremy Guy at the MAC Office and Mike Cihon from the BG sports info office with their help on these seedings.
I have listed each team in the MOST LIKELY SPOT it will fall in the MAC tournament. If there are questions/problems with these seedings, please see the note at the bottom of this post ...
MAC WOMEN'S BASKETBALL SEEDINGS
- BOWLING GREEN (13-2): The Falcons MUST win at Kent State Tuesday to hold this seeding. If the Falcons lose at KSU, the only way they remain the top seed is with losses by BOTH Eastern Michigan AND Toledo.
- EASTERN MICHIGAN (13-2): The Eagles would move into the No. 1 seed if they won at Central Michigan Tuesday AND if BG lost at Kent State. The Eagles also are the top seed if they lose at Central Michigan AND BG loses at Kent State AND Toledo wins at Ball State. Otherwise, the Eagles are the second seed in the tournament.
- TOLEDO (12-3): There is no scenario where the Rockets can be the top seed because they will lose tiebreakers with EMU, and the Eagles are a game ahead in the standings with one game to play. There is only one scenario where the Rockets earn the second seed: that happens if the Rockets win at Ball State AND Bowling Green loses at Kent State. Eastern Michigan's result is meaningless.
- MIAMI (10-5): By my calculations, the RedHawks are the ONLY Mid-American Conference team that has its seed determined before Tuesday's games.
- CENTRAL MICHIGAN (7-8): If the Chippewas win at Eastern Michigan Tuesday, CMU clinches this seed. If the Chippewas lose at home against EMU Tuesday, CMU still holds a lot of tiebreakers -- but not all. CMU wins a tiebreaker with Northern Illinois and with Ohio, but loses to Akron. The only way the Chippewas fall out of the fifth spot, according to my calculations, is if Tuesday's results include ALL of the following: CMU loses to Eastern Michigan AND Northern Illinois loses at home to Western Michigan AND Ohio loses at Miami AND Akron wins at home against Buffalo. In that case, Akron and CMU are tied at 7-9 and the Zips win the tiebreaker, dropping CMU to sixth.
- NORTHERN ILLINOIS (6-9): This is where things start getting REALLY fluid. I don't believe NIU can rise up to fifth because that would have to include a loss by Central Michigan, and the Chippewas swept the season series, which handicaps the Huskies in a tiebreaker. While the Huskies could fall below sixth (with a loss AND a win by either Akron or Ohio), they beat both UA and OU head-to-head, so if those teams have the same record, the Huskies win the tiebreaker. Even in the scenario where the Huskies lose at home to Western Michigan, Ohio AND Akron both win AND Kent State wins at home against Bowling Green (that would make OU and UA 7-9, and NIU and KSU 6-10), NIU beat the Golden Flashes and holds on to eighth. SIMPLE: If NIU wins, the Huskies are sixth.
- AKRON (6-9): Did I mention this is where things get fluid? The main reason I list the Zips here is that I expect Northern Illinois to win, and I believe the Zips have a better chance of beating Buffalo at home than Ohio does of beating Miami on the road. In that scenario, assuming Northern Illinois beats Western Michigan, the Zips are the seventh seed. Akron can move to the No. 5 seed if (and ALL of this has to happen) Central Michigan loses to Eastern Michigan AND Northern Illinois loses to Western Michigan AND Ohio loses at Miami AND Akron beats Buffalo. If Akron wins AND both NIU and OU lose, the Zips are the sixth seed. The worst-case scenario involves a Kent State win at home against Bowling Green AND a loss by Akron: In that instance KSU and UA would be tied, and the Golden Flashes' win over Bowling Green would give them the tiebreaker. In that instance, Akron loses tiebreakers with everyone (either head-to-head or because Ohio and Kent State would have beaten BG) and the Zips fall to ninth.
- OHIO (6-9): Got a headache yet? OK, I'll keep going then ... The main reason I list the Bobcats here is I expect then not to be in the tie with the other 6-9 teams, and I expect Bowling Green to beat Kent State so the Golden Flashes don't improve to 6-10, either. The Bobcats lose a tiebreaker with CMU and NIU, although they win a tiebreaker with Akron (based on Ohio's win over Bowling Green). I believe Ohio could finish as high as No. 7 (knocking Akron to eighth), and there is a scenario where the Bobcats could fall to No. 9 (and have to play a first-round tournament game on the road). That would happen if Ohio ONLY loses and Kent State wins; both teams are 6-10, and Kent State's win over Bowling Green cancels Ohio's tiebreaker win over the Falcons. In that instance Kent State's win over Central Michigan (and Ohio's loss to CMU) would give KSU the tiebreaker and the eighth seed, dropping Ohio to No. 9.
- KENT STATE (5-10): Even if the Golden Flashes lose to Bowling Green Tuesday, there are a number of scenarios where they end up ninth. Let's think positive for a second and say KSU beats BG; the Flashes lose the tiebreaker with Northern Illinois, but win tiebreakers with Akron (by beating BG) and Ohio (with a win over CMU). In that instance, KSU would rise to a high enough seed to claim a home game. Looking behind KSU in the standings, the three 4-11 teams -- Western Michigan, Ball State and Buffalo -- all have to win to tie KSU, even if the Flashes lose. Kent State wins ties with WMU (beat them) but loses to Ball State (lost to them) and has a "fluid" situation with Buffalo (KSU wins if CMU is higher in the standings than NIU; Buffalo wins if NIU is higher than CMU). If ALL FOUR teams finish 5-11, Western Michigan wins that tiebreaker with 3-1 mark and KSU falls to No. 10.
- WESTERN MICHIGAN (4-11): You've almost made it. ... If the three teams at the bottom of the standings all lose Tuesday, WMU wins the tiebreaker with a 3-0 head-to-head mark. Head to head with Buffalo or Ball State, WMU wins as well. The only way the Broncos fall below this spot is if they lose AND either Buffalo, Ball State and/or both of those two teams win. If those three teams AND Kent State finish 5-11, WMU wins the tiebreaker and is ninth. But all these three remaining teams are doing is trying to figure out where they play on Saturday; none of them can claim a home game.
- BUFFALO (4-11): The Bulls would lose a tiebreaker with WMU, win a tiebreaker with Ball State and have a "split decision" with Kent State (Buffalo wins the tiebreaker if NIU finishes higher than CMU, KSU wins it if CMU is higher than NIU). That's the only scenario where the Bulls could finish ninth. Otherwise, their finish is predicated on their result and the results involving Western Michigan and Ball State.
- BALL STATE (4-11): Congrats on reaching the finish line! ... The Cardinals lose tiebreakers with WMU and Buffalo, but win the tiebreaker with Kent State. Ball State would be No. 9 if they win AND Kent State AND Western Michigan AND Buffalo ALL lose. The Cardinals need to win AND have Western Michigan and/or Buffalo lose to finish above either team.
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