The Bowling Green men's basketball team continues to rank among the Division I leaders in steals per game. Entering play Monday the Falcons ranked fifth (among 336 schools) with 9.5 steals per game.
What does that mean?
Well, if my seat-of-the-pants analysis is correct, the answer is simple: not much.
I spent some time tracking BG's steals in its 12 Mid-American Conference games this season (my apologies if you wanted me to do the whole schedule -- I don't have that much free time!). If my numbers are correct, the Falcons' steals aren't producing a whole lot of points than the team would not score otherwise.
Now, here is the logic I used to come to this conclusion. Please remember: I barely survived a grad school statistics class, so you can hoot all you want at this. ... I used the "points off turnovers" guide that is a part of all BG box scores: simply put, the computer tracks what happens after a team commits a turnover.
In its 12 MAC games, Bowling Green has scored 160 points following an opponent turnover, or 13.3 points per game. If you use the 176 turnovers the Falcons have forced, BG is scoring 0.91 points per turnover.
Still with me? Well, I used the same logic for steals, namely, what happened after a team stole the ball. I determined that Bowling Green scored 91 points following a steal, or 7.58 points per game off steals. If you use the 106 steals BG has made, that averages out to 0.86 points per steal.
Those numbers aren't very impressive: to put them in perspective, here's what MAC opponents have done with BG's turnovers and steals so far this year. The Falcons have committed 149 turnovers (fewer than their opponents), but allowed 167 points off turnovers (MORE!) for 13.92 ppg off turnovers and 1.12 points per turnover.
It's equally bad for steals: While the Falcons' opponents have made just 79 steals (again, less than BG), the steals have resulted in 100 points (again, MORE!). The figures are 8.33 points per game off steals and 1.27 points per steal.
It's probably worth noting that, on a per-game basis, the Falcons' points-per-steals are higher in wins than in losses. Four of the top five numbers (and six of the top eight) come in wins; three of the bottom four games ended up as losses. But when only four of 12 MAC games have resulted in points-per-steals ratios of 1.00 or higher, well, I think that loses some of its worthiness.
In hopes that my research isn't a total loss, I also tracked who scored off steals, whose steals led to points (for themselves or for others), and whose turnovers led to the most points for the other teams.
In all three categories, I expected guards to be the leaders (generalization: more open court following their steals). But there were a few surprises ...
Who scored the most points off steals? Jordon Crawford was the obvious choice to lead in that category, in my opinion. Currrently he's second on the team with 25 points; the leader is Scott Thomas, who has 27 points. The only other player in double figures is Luke Kraus with 10 points, although A'uston Calhoun is close with nine.
As a side note, I'll bet you think that most of Thomas' points come off his steals, right? Wrong. Thomas has scored only seven of his points off his own steals; most of his points come when he finishes someone else's steal.
Whose steals lead to the most points? Thomas and Crawford are the obvious choices since they both rank among the MAC leaders, and they also are correct. BG has scored 24 points each off their steals; no one else's steals have produced more than eight points (Dee Brown and Torian Oglesby).
Whose turnovers (when the ball is stolen from them) costs BG the most points? In other words, when someone has the ball stolen from them, whose steals result in the most points for the other team? Again, you would think the point guards, right? You'd be on target: Joe Jakubowski has had the ball stolen away by the other team leading to 23 points, while Crawford is third with 16 points allowed. It's interesting, at least to me, that Thomas is second with 20 points allowed, while Brown is fourth with 11 points.
From these numbers, it seems either BG isn't taking full advantage of its steals, or MAC opponents are really taking advantage of the Falcons' turnovers. In short, crime just doesn't pay.
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