Dotting The 'Eyes

Dotting The 'Eyes vs. the Predictalator

An expanded version of this week's End Zone column on the Buckeyes' chances of going undefeated:

I am not one to challenge the wisdom of computers. We saw how that worked out for Ken Jennings — vanquished by Watson on Jeopardy — and presumptuous Russian chess grandmaster Garry Kasparov. But I have a bone to pick with one of Deep Blue's digital homeboys. According to statistician Paul Bessire's Predictalator, which simulated each of Ohio State's remaining three games 50,000 times, the Buckeyes have a 28.8 percent chance of finishing unbeaten.

With all due respect to predictionmachine.com — and less due respect to OSU's last three opponents — I say it's happening.

The Buckeyes' most complete effort of the season at Penn State accompanied by more Big Ten sorrow elsewhere last weekend recast expectations. OSU must navigate home games against 24-point underdog Illinois and a Michigan team that mustered a combined 21 points the past two weeks, and an afternoon visit to Wisconsin, which just lost starting quarterback Joel Stave (broken collarbone) for the season in a home loss to Michigan State.

By my computations — simulating each game once in my head — Ohio State has a 78.4 percent of remaining undefeated, with a margin of error of plus or minus 48 percent. Hey, I'm not perfect. But the Buckeyes should be.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Check out the Predictalator's forecasts for the other unbeaten teams. From predictionmachine.com:

Alabama

Games Remaining: 5 (including SEC championship game)

Undefeated Chances: 54.7%

Closest Remaining Game: at LSU (Nov. 2)

Notre Dame

Games Remaining: 4

Undefeated Chances 39.8%

Closest Remaining Game: at USC (Nov. 24)

Kansas State

Games Remaining: 4

Undefeated Chances: 27.7%

Closest Remaining Game: at TCU (Nov. 10)

Oregon

Games Remaining: 5 (including Pac-12 championship game)

Undefeated Chances: 20.2%

Closest Remaining Game: at USC (Nov. 2)

Louisville

Games Remaining: 4

Undefeated Chances: 16.6%

Closest Remaining Game: at Rutgers (Nov. 29)

Shocking the football world: Part 2

For the risktakers out there, here's an interesting note from Notre Dame's stunning 30-13 victory at 13-point favorite Oklahoma: It was the first time an undefeated double-digit underdog won this late in the season since the Buckeyes upset Miami in the 2002 BCS championship game. In between, according to Pregame.com, the last 16 unbeaten double-digit dogs this deep into the year had lost.

A few other morsels from Pregame.com's weekly media release:

-- "If Notre Dame played Alabama on a neutral field, Irish would be 13-point dogs."

-- "Alabama travels to LSU this week: LSU is a 10-point home underdog! First time in over a decade that LSU is a double digit home underdog. Biggest home underdog LSU has been against Alabama since 1992. In odds offered before the season, LSU was favored in this game!"

-- "Oregon travels to USC this week: USC is a 7-point home underdog! First time since 1997 that USC has been a home underdog of a touchdown or more. In odds offered before the season, USC was a 3-point favorite in this game!"

-- "If Oregon played Alabama on a neutral field, Oregon would be 3-point underdogs."

Where did all the linebackers go?

Wondering what that one stud linebacker recruit from Ohio State's 2009 -- or 2010 -- recruiting class is up to these days? There's a good chance he's plying his trade elsewhere -- or nowhere at all. To go along with our story today exploring the reasons for the Buckeyes' tissue-thin depth at linebacker, here is the biggest one: No one is left from the 2009 and 2010 recruiting classes. At least it feels that way. Of the eight linebacker recruits from those years, only reserve Storm Klein and fullback-turned-back-to-linebacker Zach Boren remain on the team.

Where is everyone? Here's a look:

2009 linebacker recruits

Jordan Whiting, Louisville (3-star) -- Transferred to Louisville.

Storm Klein, Newark, Ohio (4-star) -- Started last season; now a backup.

Dorian Bell, Monroeville, Pa. (5-star) -- Suspended and left program; transferred to Duquesne in Pittsburgh.

Zach Boren, Pickerington, Ohio (3-star) -- Started at fullback first three-plus seasons; moved back to linebacker last week.

2010 linebacker recruits

Chad Hagan, Canonsburg, Pa. (3-star) -- Career-ending injury.

David Durham, Charlotte (3-star) -- Moved to fullback, then transferred to Pittsburgh.

Scott McVey, Cleveland (4-star) -- Career-ending injury.

Jamel Turner, Fork Union, Va. (4-star) -- Never arrived on campus.

* Star ratings from Scout.com

Defense wins the crystal ball

To go along with today's End Zone, I bring you proof of why Ohio State needs its Silver Bullets back for the program to truly regain its place among the nation's elite. Here’s a look at where the defenses of the last 12 champions ranked nationally:

2000: Oklahoma 278.9 yards allowed per game (8)

2001: Miami 270.9 (6)

2002: Ohio State 320.9 (23)

2003: LSU 252.0 (1)

2004: Southern California 279.3 (6)

2005: Texas 302.9 (10)

2006: Florida 255.4 (6)

2007: LSU 288.8 (3)

2008: Florida 285.3 (9)

2009: Alabama 244.1 (2)

2010: Auburn 368.4 (60)

2011: Alabama 183.6 (1)

This season, Ohio State is allowing 400 and ranked 69th. Short term, I suppose that means its offense better be than Auburn's in 2010. Long term, not going to cut it.

Score one for the band

Judging by the 5.1 million (and counting) hits on YouTube, you've probably already seen the Ohio State Marching Band's viral halftime performance from Saturday night. But I would be remiss not to share The Best Damn Band in the Land's ode to video games anyway. Elmore native Jon Waters' charges delivered a performance for the ages -- a show Entertainment Weekly called "transfixing in its awesomeness" that "must simply be seen to be believed."

Check it out:

 

 

Sabino sidelined with broken leg

Starting linebacker Etienne Sabino will miss at least three games with a broken fibula, dealing a major blow to a unit already short on depth. S

Sabino, a senior captain, suffered the injury in the first half of OSU’s win over Nebraska and had a plate put in his leg Sunday.

“He's an incredible human being. I love that guy,” Meyer said. “He’s hurting. He talked to the team after the game, and it was an emotional moment. This team's getting pretty close because of guys like him. We're going to miss him.”

Sabino will be replaced by freshman Josh Perry — one of six underclassmen among the seven linebackers listed on the Buckeyes’ depth chart.

A clash of philosphies

Urban Meyer and Nick Saban coach in different leagues now, but the former SEC rivals are still going at it. Their latest battle is on nothing less than the future of football. Saban, you see, is not amused by what he sees as a fancy dancy trend sweeping across college football: the no-huddle offense. He prefers the classic pro-style look, Meyer -- and a roster of others -- the bullet-paced spread.

"I think that the way people are going no-huddle right now, that at some point in time, we should look at how fast we allow the game to go in terms of player safety," Saban said on the SEC teleconference this week, according to AL.com. "The team gets in the same formation group, you can’t substitute defensive players, you go on a 14-, 16-, 18-play drive and they’re snapping the ball as fast as you  can go and you look out there and all your players are walking around  and can’t even get lined up. That’s when guys have a much greater chance of getting hurt when they’re not ready to play.

"I think that’s something that can be looked at. It’s obviously created a tremendous  advantage for the offense when teams are scoring 70 points and we’re averaging 49.5 points a game."

"Is this what we want football to be?" Saban then asked.

To which Meyer replied with a resounding, "Yes!"

"I think it’s great for the game," he said of the no-huddle element. "There are so many different personalities in college football, and I’ve had guys on my staff who either played in the pros or coached in the pros, and the one thing about NFL football -- I’m obviously not an expect because I don’t  get to see it that much -- is you don’t see the multitude of different offenses that you see in college. You can go from wishbone,  spread-option to throwing it 50 times a game to pro style. I love it because I love watching it. I love getting that film and using other people’s ideas, so I think it’s great for college football."

Fragel's ceiling high ... if he gets nastier

Ex-Browns GM Phil Savage continues to pore through his notes from a visit to Ohio State's practice facility last week. His latest reports are on senior cornerback Travis Howard and senior offensive lineman Reid Fragel -- the grandson of former Rossford basketball coach Joe Stalma. Interesting -- and blunt -- thoughts on the 6-foot-8, 310-pound Fragel, who looks to have an NFL future after moving from tight end to right tackle for his final season. Savage said if Fragel gets nastier "and embraces the opportunity in front of him, the ceiling for him could be as a potential starter in the league." If his performance Saturday against Michigan State is any indication, Fragel took the message to heart.

Here are Savage's write-ups, courtesy of seniorbowl.com.

Reid Fragel

Summary: A tall-framed prospect with long arms and a developed lower body and bubble. He has added over 20 lbs. since the spring and can certainly carry even more weight in the future (maybe, in the 325-330 lb. range).

As stated, he aligns as the RT and plays from both 2- and 3-point stances in this version of OSU’s spread option offense. He has natural knee bend to his play and consistently stays on his feet. As a run blocker, he will latch on and run his feet, but is not an explosive road grater off the line. He will body position and wall off opponents with his overall size and ability to keep his balance.

On “down” blocks, he can cover people up with his frame, but again, would not consider him to be a mauler. In pass protection, he can get out of his stance and slide laterally while extending his arms. When he keeps his weight back and head up, he can be difficult to get around due to his body and arm length. When he leans at the waist or drops his head, like every offensive lineman, he can get exposed and is vulnerable to counter moves.

For the most part, he keeps his hands inside, but there are times when he has them outside and gives too much ground. Still, this is a prospect that flashes athletic ability with the skill to adjust and confront an alternate pass rush move.

For the NFL, Reid is an intriguing player because of his limited experience as an OT, his further body development and the fact that he stays off the ground. He gives a consistent effort, but does not have a nasty demeanor. If he will understand and embrace the opportunity in front of him, the ceiling for him could be as a potential starter in the league. Otherwise, his floor will be as a journeyman developmental candidate that has the physical traits and a questionable football temperament.

What the NFL scouts want to see in 2012: For Reid to turn up the intensity on and off the field and demonstrate that he is very serious about playing professional football. Through four games (visit on 9/26), he has shown steady improvement, but will need to continue in that regard as the Buckeyes will take on eight straight Big Ten opponents to close out the 2012 season.

Travis Howard

Summary: As a senior, interestingly enough, he is playing as the “field” corner even though he has the build of a “boundary” corner at 6000/195. He has an angular body with long arms and legs with thin wrists and ankles. He is “leggy” in his transition, yet shows quality athletic ability and more quickness than expected for a tall corner.

In the Buckeyes’ first five games, he has registered 3 interceptions and is playing the best football of his career. In run support, he takes up space on the perimeter with his length and, overall, is a drag-down style tackler. He will get involved, but is not a physical striker in space.

As a pass defender, he will pedal-and-react to routes in front of him and does a solid job in his backward-and-forward transitions. Travis does have some tightness when changing directions laterally out in the open field, but his best attribute may be when he is at the line-of-scrimmage. In press, he has the arm length to jam the receiver and then the needed speed to carry his opponent downfield.

On Tuesday, September 25, he had an excellent day in the 1-on-1 WR/DB drills when he demonstrated more short area quickness and reactionary movement than his long build would indicate. He has not been challenged vertically very often in games, so it is difficult to assess his ball awareness and judgment in the deep part of the field. He catches the football easily and has 7 interceptions in 16 career starts.

For the NFL, by virtue of his height-weight and speed, he will be thoroughly evaluated this fall. With the dearth of 6000 corners available in college football, every team in the league will have to make their determination on him as a future backup or potential starter. He probably fits best for a Cover Two team (with rolled up corners) that will ask for some MM skills in their scheme.

What the NFL scouts want to see in 2012: If he can stay healthy for the remainder of the season and continue making plays on the football, with his past contributions on special teams, his stock can elevate for the 2013 draft.

Ex-Browns GM projects Simon as LB

From the where-are-they-now files, Ohio State had a familiar face at practice yesterday: Phil Savage. Yes, the former Browns general manager is back on his feet as executive director of the Senior Bowl in Mobile, Ala. Here’s the scouting report he filed today on Buckeyes defensive end John Simon. Interesting take.  

Courtesy of the Senior Bowl:

Tapes Viewed: 2011-Nebraska, Illinois, Michigan; 2012-Miami/OH, Central Florida, California, UAB

Practice Attended: Tuesday, September 25

Summary: John is a three-year starter at defensive end for the Ohio State Buckeyes. After playing as a backup in 2009, he has been in the lineup ever since and has tallied 122 total tackles, 32.5 tackles-for-loss and 13 sacks during his productive career.

On the hoof, he has more of a 3-4 outside linebacker build than classic DE frame. He is close to being maxed out weight-wise with a developed body overall. He has a compact upper with almost 32” arms and—for his height—is high-cut to a degree in the lower with sturdy legs and a bubble.

He generally aligns in a three-point stance as a DE in the Buckeyes’ 4-man front, however, they will have him stand up on occasion and rush through the A (guard/center) or B (guard/tackle) gaps in their “Joker” (Sub 3-man front) package.

Regardless of his assignment, this is a hard-charging, relentless competitor who simply does not quit. He has excellent initial and body quickness, but does have some lateral tightness when changing directions in space. He comes off the football in attack mode and his hands are combat ready. They are like a bundle of butcher knives for the opponent to handle and that is how he wins.

For the most part, John has success early in the down with his first-step takeoff and active hands or late in the down with his never-give-up attitude. Against the run, as a DE, he can get covered up at the point-of-attack because he simply does not have enough girth and length to do more than hold his own. If he projects to OLB and is over a TE, then he definitely has the physical strength and will to confront the blocker. On runs away, he stays disciplined and square to the line-of-scrimmage as he skates down the line and watches for the QB bootleg.

As a pass rusher, he specializes in hand-to-hand combat and, again, gives more effort than he has actual talent to race the edge. At times, he will charge upfield and try to run through the outside shoulder of his opponent or swat and rip to the inside or, simply, spin to the inside. He does get blocked and bottled up some, but this is a prospect that plays with purpose and a passion and always ends up near the action. He rarely drops off into coverage, yet looks to have enough movement ability to play the curl-to-flat zone.

For the NFL, John appears to project best as a 3-4 outside linebacker. Some scouts have speculated that he might be a Mike (inside linebacker) in the pros, however in this opinion, that move takes him away from what he does best which is his hand-fighting ability and urgency to get to the passer. To think that he can take on blockers from depth, disengage and then run to the perimeter is a tough call, but there is no doubt that he can align as a left OLB in the 3-4, defeat a TE in the run game or accelerate off the LOS and go hit the QB.

This player has some similar qualities to Kevin Greene, the former Rams/Steelers/Panthers’ star that “overachieved” during a 15-year/160-sack NFL career, in that both have outstanding upper strength and hands, straight-line acceleration and an overwhelmingly competitive nature. If Simon can find the right fit and stay healthy, he can enjoy the same kind of success; otherwise, he is still the kind of player and personality that would be welcomed to most any NFL team as a Sub pass rusher and special teams’ contributor with off-the-chart intangibles.

In one sentence, he is one of the fiercest competitors in all of college football.

What the NFL scouts want to see in 2012: John’s characteristics as a prospect are defined, so the next question will be to see him play on his feet at the Senior Bowl and in spring pre-draft workouts. In the meantime, developing a second “escape” move other than the spin to the inside will be important to him.

Miller Time in the Big Apple?

An expanded version of today's Ohio State End Zone on the way-too-early Heisman campaign of Braxton Miller.  

My foresight is legally diagnosed as 20/400. I am not the best at predictions, having once bet against the Globetrotters, then tried to break even by betting for the Rapture. But here goes one anyway: Ohio State quarterback Braxton Miller will be among the Big Apple-bound finalists for the Heisman Trophy.

Can you imagine where the Buckeyes would be without their dynamic sophomore? Neither can anyone else. ESPN.com voted Miller fourth on its latest Heisman watch list while the Heismanpundit/CBSSports.com straw poll of 11 national writers has him at second behind only West Virginia quarterback Geno Smith. (SI.com pegs Miller fourth; Yahoo! Sports has him fifth.)

Miller is averaging 329 yards per game of total offense, has thrown seven touchdown passes and is the nation’s leading rusher at quarterback (126 yards per game). He will have to evolve as a passer as teams at times cram approximately 16 players in the box to stop him.

“I've seen defenses in the last three weeks that I've never even dreamed of in my mind to try to stop the quarterback from running the football,” offensive coordinator Tom Herman said. "It's an interesting quandary to be in when you have such a dynamic player back there that defensive coverages tend to be completely skewed and opposed to what you grew up knowing. ... Teams now are trying to get eight, nine guys in the box to be sound against him running, so the variety of coverages that we see on first and second down is absolutely mind-boggling."

If Miller stays healthy, though, his numbers may well be there. Who's going to stop him? Alabama-Birmingham, which is allowing 477 yards per game heading into Saturday's nonconference finale at Ohio Stadium? Indiana? No. 18 Michigan is the highest-ranked team OSU faces the rest of the season. While coach Urban Meyer isn’t ready to call his precocious signal-caller a Heisman contender, I asked my Magic-8-Ball if the Big Ten will douse No. 5's candidacy? The response: “My sources say no."

 

Here's a look at the latest projections:

 

The HeismanPundit/CBSSports.com Heisman Straw Poll

1. Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia -- 24 (8 first-place votes)

2. Braxton Miller, QB, Ohio State -- 10

3. De'Anthony Thomas, RB, Oregon -- 8

4. Collin Klein, QB, Kansas State -- 5 (1)

5. (tie) Marqise Lee, WR, USC -- 3 (1)

Stepfan Taylor, RB, Stanford -- 3 (1)

ESPN Heisman Watch

1. Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia -- 72 (12 first-place votes)

2. De'Anthony Thomas, RB, Oregon -- 50 (3)

3. Johnathan Franklin, RB, UCLA -- 34

4. Braxton Miller, QB, Ohio State -- 17

5. Matt Barkley, QB, USC -- 14