Conventional wisdom has it that Ohio's 5th Congressional District is solidly Republican, since the 5th District has had Republican representatives in Congress as long as anyone can remember.
And U.S. Rep. Bob Latta (R., Bowling Green) is a dogged campaigner.
But in her campaign "prospectus," a document that reads like an investment solicitation, Democrat Angela Zimmann begs to differ.
Here's her take on the 5th District:
"THE FACTS ADD UP
"Angela ran unopposed on the Democratic ballot in the 5th District’s 2012 Primary on March 6. Republican
incumbent Bob Latta faced one primary challenger. The Libertarian Party also fielded a candidate that will
pull voters away from the incumbent and help our numbers.
The default position of many armchair pundits is that Ohio’s 5th is a Republican stronghold, but the
numbers tell a vastly different story. District Five has 369,027 registered voters (who voted in primaries
99,637 are registered Democrats (27%)
95,947 are registered Republicans (26%)
Roughly 25% of these voters are over the age of 65, facing Medicare and Social Security cuts as a result of
the GOP budget.
"The Tea Party, with which Latta is closely aligned, is
very unpopular in the district. With 45 percent viewing the movement unfavorably and only 27 percent viewing
the movement favorably, our survey suggests that OH-5 voters view the Tea Party unfavorably by a wide
margin. Of those who view the Tea Party movement unfavorably, 31 percent view it very unfavorably.
"The key groups for this race are Women and Union Households!
Women: Young independent women are highly receptive to Angela’s appeal as a mother, educator, and
strong advocate for women and they are troubled by Latta’s record on outsourcing and women’s health.
Women in the 5th district view Planned Parenthood very favorably by a ten-to-one margin, 50% to 5%.
Union Households: A compelling contrast between the two candidates with union households is on the
issue of education and college affordability. These voters are positively persuaded by Angela’s record as an
educator and school board member working to improve schools and make college more affordable, and are
troubled by Latta’s votes to slash Pell Grants and aid to states for higher education.
XXX"Our analysis indicates that the district has changed favorably for Democratic candidates andvotes independently depending on the race. Here’s why: The recently re-shaped District Five is more compact making up the NW Corner of Ohio (only 14 counties). District Five has more Democratic voters than the previous district (due to the inclusion of precincts in Toledo and Ottawa County).
"Governor Strickland and Senator Sherrod Brown (both prominent Democrats) won decisively in recent
elections in the counties making up the 5th District.
Most importantly, District Five is an independent swing district with voters that are comfortable being split
ticket voters. In 2008 (a strong Democratic year), President Obama actually underperformed compared
to other democratic races such as the Attorney General race by almost 30,000 votes; both Obama and
Cordray (the AG candidate) won the district.
Additionally, in 2010 (a weak democratic year), Democrat incumbent Governor Strickland won the 14
counties of the District Five by almost 8,000 votes, while Democratic incumbent Attorney General Cordray
lost the 14 counties by 20,914 votes, almost a 30,000 vote difference.
In the statewide races since 2006, the only Democrat on the top of the ticket to lose the combined 14
counties was Cordray in 2010."