Big House Blurbs

Week 8 Big Ten picks

For entertainment purposes only ... unless you win a nice chunk of money and wish to thank me.  

Michigan State (-6.5) at Northwestern. Michigan State has been playing at a very high level for a month now. Until I see them come down, I'm not anticipating they will.

Penn State (-9.5) at Minnesota. Penn State on the road isn't 10 points better than any Big Ten team, including hapless Minnesota.

Purdue (+23.5) at Ohio State. Ohio State seems to bounce back well from surprising losses, but this is too many points for my liking.

Indiana (+13.5) at Illinois. Indiana is better than it showed last week in a two-point win over Arkansas State. I know that's not a ringing endorsement, but expect the Hoosiers to be competitive Saturday.

Wisconsin (+6.5) at Iowa. Don't let the upset win over Ohio State fool you. Wisconsin ain't that good. 

Last week: 2-2

Season: 25-18-1

 

Week 7 Big Ten picks

For entertainment purposes only ... unless you win a nice chunk of money and wish to thank me.  

Arkansas State (+10) at Indiana. How does Indiana still have Arkansas State on its schedule!? I read somewhere, maybe from our Dave Hackenberg, the three teams Indiana has beaten (Towson, Western Kentucky, Akron) have combined for one win. Still, I'm intrigued by the Hoosiers. After tough games the past two weeks, they'll come out hard on Saturday, win, and more importantly cover the spread.

Illinois (+7) at Michigan State. I love this game for Illinois. Michigan State has been playing very well for a few weeks now, and they're going to come down soon. A good team to be sure, but they're capable of struggling. I think the Spartans find a way to win Saturday but in more dramatic fashion than they'd like.

Minnesota (+5.5) at Purdue. A week ago I would've said the loser of this game will finish last in the Big Ten. Now, after Purdue stunned me by knocking off Northwestern, I'm not so sure. Well, I am sorta sure if Minnesota loses it will finish last. And I think Minnesota will lose, both on the field and in the Vegas sports books.

Ohio State (-4) at Wisconsin. I am not a believer in Wisconsin this year. Something is missing. They always seem to play Ohio State tough, which almost makes me want to take them and the four points. But I don't like to look too deep into year-to-year series trends. Ohio State is the better team, and by at least four points. 

Last week: 2-2

Season: 23-16-1

 

Week 6 Big Ten picks

For entertainment purposes only ... unless you win a nice chunk of money and wish to thank me.  

Indiana (+22.5) at Ohio State. Your eyeballs weren't deceiving you last week; Indiana is a strong team. Its offense is going to score points against most teams and shouldn't struggle too much Saturday against a questionable Buckeye secondary. I think the Hoosiers will play very hard and if nothing else beat the spread. 

Illinois (+8) at Penn State. I think Vegas got this one wrong. Penn State's offense has been in a coma all year, and Illinois might be better than we think. I don't want to label this a lock of this week, but I feel pretty confident placing my money on Illinois that Vegas screwed up on this one.

Minnesota (+22) at Wisconsin. At first glance, I absolutely think you should pick Minnesota. Now? I'm not so sure. Yes, we're five weeks into the season, but we're still in a feeling out mode. There isn't much evidence to support Wisconsin as a better than average team in the Big Ten. On the other hand, the Gophers might be on their way to a two or three win season. In sixth grade my teacher advised me to always choose my initial choice when faced with a dilemma. And even though later in my life I made the regrettable selection of journalism over medical school (not really) because it was my initial choice, I'm going to continue to heed her advice. Minny it is.

Purdue (+8.5) at Northwestern. Northwestern, I'm convinced, is in possession of compromising photos of whoever created the Big Ten schedule. Following a relatively easy non conference schedule (At Vanderbilt, Illinois State, At Rice, Central Michigan) the Wildcats opened conference play with Minnesota followed by Purdue. They'll be 6-0 after Saturday and won't be a heavy underdog for the next three weeks. Purdue has had two weeks to prepare for this one but it won't matter much.

Last week: 1-3

Season: 21-14-1

 

Week 5 Big Ten picks

For entertainment purposes only ... unless you win a nice chunk of money and wish to thank me.  

Ohio State (-17) at Illinois. This is a very good Ohio State team that likely hasn't played to its potential. The defense should be dominant in this one, while the offense continues its explosiveness. 

Northwestern (-5.5) at Minnesota. Minnesota has dropped three straight games, all at home, and is staring at this October slate: vs. Northwestern, At Wisconsin, At Purdue, vs. Penn State, vs. Ohio State. Things are about to get even uglier for the Gophers and their former head coach Tim Brewster.

Wisconsin (-2) at Michigan State. Should be a fantastic game between two evenly matched teams. Check that. Wisconsin is the better of the two. I'm fairly certain, anyway. Should be a good one though.

Penn State (+7) at Iowa. Here's all I need to know. Penn State has struggled to score points with a true freshman quarterback at the controls. On Saturday that true freshman will be playing a night game, on the road, before a spirited crowd. That's all I need to know. Iowa should dominate here.

Last week: 6-1

Season: 20-11-1

Week 4 Big Ten picks

For entertainment purposes only ... unless you win a nice chunk of money and wish to thank me.  

Central Michigan (+6.5) at Northwestern

Toledo (+11.5) at Purdue

Ball State (+28) at Iowa

Temple (+14) at Penn State

Eastern Michigan (+44) at Ohio State

Akron (+22.5) at Indiana

Northern Illinois (+4) at Minnesota

Last week: 5-5

Season: 14-10-1

Week 3 Big Ten picks

For entertainment purposes only ... unless you win a nice chunk of money and wish to thank me.  

Ball State (+16.5) at Purdue. Ball State just lost to some team named Liberty. I don't need to know anything else. 

Northern Illinois (+7) at Illinois. Northern Illinois has had some struggles and now its coach has some health concerns and has been limited in his planning for this game. Not encouraging. Beyond all that, Illinois is probably more than seven points better than the in-state Huskies.

Ohio (+30) at Ohio State. Yes, 30 is a lot of points, but I just don't see Ohio's offense doing much of anything Saturday. Conversely, the Buckeyes are having a ton of fun on offense. This is a total mismatch.

Kent State (+21) at Penn State. I deliberated on this one for quite a while. When it doubt, forget about the spread and choose the winner. 

Southern Cal (-11.5) at Minnesota. Minnesota was humbled last week and should come out hard against a prolific opponent at home. Doubt they win, but they'll do enough to stay in the game.

Arizona State (+13) at Wisconsin. Wisconsin is a very good team that has made a few silly errors on its way to starting 2-0. I'm not at all convinced Arizona State, which was awful offensively a year ago, has turned it around. Maybe I'm just not convinced Steve Threet is a capable quarterback. Either way, the Badgers cover. 

Indiana (-12) at Western Kentucky. WKU has allowed 49 and 63 points in its two games. No good. Moreover, Indiana will have had 16 days to prepare for this one. We're looking at a lock here.

Northwestern (-6.5) at Rice. I love underdogs at home, except, of course, when Western Kentucky hosts Indiana and is getting only 12 points.

Michigan State (+3.5) at Notre Dame. Should be a fantastic game. I don't see ND losing on back-to-back weeks at home, but per usual when these teams get together, I'm predicting a one, two, or three point margin. That 3.5 might as well be four.

Iowa (0) at Arizona. It's a toss-up game. When in doubt go with the home team, especially in a night game in a different time zone. Not this time though. I'll go with the team with the better defense.

Last week: 6-0

Season: 9-5-1

Big Ten week 2 spread predictions

For entertainment purposes only ... unless you win a nice chunk of money and wish to thank me.  

No lines given on the four games involving a I-AA team --- Northwestern-Illinois State, Minnesota-South Dakota, Purdue-Western Illinois, Illinois-Southern Illinois. 

San Jose State (+38) at Wisconsin. Brutal draw for San Jose State after last week's 45-3 beat down at No. 1 Alabama. I like the Badgers, but I'm always leery of picking a team to win by this many points, so we'll take San Jose State. Notice that I have continually refrained from using San Jose State's nickname. That's because I don't know it's nickname. Let's move on.

Michigan State (+28) at Florida Atlantic. They'll play this one in Detroit. Tough line to pick, but again, that's a lot of points. We'll take the Owls. Pretty sure they're called the Owls, anyway.

Michigan (+3.5) at Notre Dame: After a misleadingly strong performance against Connecticut's hapless offense, I'd suspect UM's defense rears its ugly head. ND has a plethora of playmakers (Allen, Rudolph, Floyd, Crist) that I question whether the Wolverines can keep in check. On the flip side, I don't see ND doing much better trying to stop Denard Robinson. Should be a close game, and I think UM does enough to beat the spread.

Iowa State (+14) at Iowa. Iowa State hasn't scored a touchdown against the Hawkeyes since 2006. Absolutely absurd. For that reason, along with a few others I won't waste your time with, I like Iowa to win and cover. 

Miami (+8.5) at Ohio State. On Monday, the Buckeyes were 10-point favorites. The fans spoke up and decided that was too many, resulting in a fairly dramatic line change. I'll trust Vegas, which seems to have a good handle on this gambling stuff, over emotional fans. Plus, I don't see the Hurricanes doing much scoring. OSU's defense looked very fast against Marshall.

Penn State (+12) at Alabama. Finally Penn State mans up and plays a strong opponent out of conference. On the road, no less. They picked the wrong year to do it though. True freshman quarterback Robert Bolden enters an impossible situation, and the Nittany Lions should take a decent beating. 

Last week: 3-5-1

Big Ten week 1 spread predictions

For entertainment purposes only ... unless you win a nice chunk of money and wish to thank me.

No lines given on the two games involving a I-AA team --- Penn State vs. Youngstown State, Iowa vs. Eastern Illinois.

Marshall (+28) at Ohio State. Tressel will want to play a lot of guys in the opener, which doesn't look good for those betting on the Buckeyes to cover. OSU should win convincingly, but 28 points is too many.

Towson (+28.5) at Indiana. Towson has 43 letterwinners returning!!!. ... from a 2-9 team. My colleague, IU grad Don Emmons, thinks the Hoosiers are going to be an upper-tier team in the Big Ten. Not sure I agree with him, but I do like them to cover against Towson. Whoever, whatever and wherever that is.

Minnesota (-1.5) at Middle Tennessee State. The home team is without its excellent QB due to suspension. The Gophers win this game fairly comfortably.

Western Michigan (+23.5) at Michigan State. I think the Spartans are capable of a very special season. Then again, they almost always seem to screw up positive things. They cover over their in-state kid brother.

Illinois (+12) on neutral field against Missouri. I don't like picking against a team receiving 12 points. I don't love Illinois or coach Ron Zook. It's a like vs. love thing. 

Connecticut (+2.5) at Michigan. When I say I don't have a prediction for this game, I honestly mean I don't have a prediction for this game. I'll call it a toss-up, meaning, since Connecticut is being given points, I'll take them.

Purdue (+11) at Notre Dame. I see Notre Dame being improved this year under Brian Kelly, who for my money, might be the best coach in the country who has yet to win a national championship. That being said, Purdue is no joke. I like the Boilermakers to beat the spread, and possibly beat the Irish.

Northwestern (-4.5) at Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt is on an eight-game losing streak. It's hard for me to take a team like that seriously until I see evidence to the contrary. Conversely, I echo Blade columnist Dave Hackenberg who wrote this week that Northwestern's Pat Fitzgerald might be the best young coach in the game. I also like his offensive coordinator, Mick McCall, who did a good job at Bowling Green. As an aside, is there any fan base in the Big Ten that truly dislikes Northwestern? In their good years, and this could be one, they are fun to pull for. The little train of brainiacs that could.

Wisconsin (-20.5) at UNLV. Wisconsin might get worn down playing in the western time zone, but UNLV absolutely will get worn down trying to tackle John Clay. Badgers win big here.